World Cup Betting Model

Projected Goals

Projected goals are expected goals: the average goals a team would score across many simulations from its attack rating, opponent defense, Elo strength, venue context, and host adjustment. They are not a literal final score.

Pick Scoreline

The displayed scoreline is constrained to the selected betting pick. The model may still know that a draw is a common exact score, but it will not show 1-1 beside a team-win recommendation.

Market Coverage

Polymarket prices appear when an active match market can be found. If the live lookup misses but a previous price was saved, the report shows it as cached; otherwise the match is marked clearly as missing.

Upset Calibration

Final probabilities include a soccer calibration layer that raises low-score draws, compresses heavy favorites, and gives close underdog wins a modest boost before picks and market edges are calculated.

Upcoming

Turkey vs Paraguay

Fri, Jun 19 - 7:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Turkey

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.40Turkey projected goals

1.22Paraguay projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Turkey: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Paraguay: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Turkey

38.3%

Draw

29.4%

Paraguay

32.3%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Paraguay 1.5 Spread | model 82.0% | fair -455

Turkey -1.5 Spread | model 18.0% | fair +456

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.9% | fair +113

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.1% | fair -114

Yes BTTS | model 53.7% | fair -116

1-1 Exact score | 14.4% | fair +596

1-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +950

0-1 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1015

Kenan Yildiz Turkey scorer | model 22.3% | fair +349

Kerem Akturkoglu Turkey scorer | model 20.1% | fair +398

Miguel Almiron Paraguay scorer | model 19.7% | fair +408

Julio Enciso Paraguay scorer | model 18.7% | fair +435

Corner Projections

5.1 Turkey projected corners

4.6 Paraguay projected corners

Turkey Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139

Paraguay Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 66.9% | fair -204

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.3% | fair -101

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.7% | fair +101

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1658 Away Elo: 1628 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +30 Raw W/D/L: 41.2/26.2/32.7% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

United States vs Australia

Fri, Jun 19 - 10:00 PM PDT | Lumen Field, Seattle

Model Pick

United States

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.67United States projected goals

1.01Australia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. United States: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Australia: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

United States

48.8%

Draw

28.3%

Australia

22.9%

Polymarket

United States60.5%

Draw21.5%

Australia17.5%

Pick edge-11.7%

Best valueDraw +6.8%

Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-usa-aus-2026-06-19)))))

Australia 1.5 Spread | model 73.6% | fair -278

United States -1.5 Spread | model 26.4% | fair +279

Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110

1-1 Exact score | 13.9% | fair +620

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +844

2-1 Exact score | 8.9% | fair +1018

Christian Pulisic United States scorer | model 30.8% | fair +225

Folarin Balogun United States scorer | model 28.5% | fair +251

Mitchell Duke Australia scorer | model 18.3% | fair +448

Jackson Irvine Australia scorer | model 12.3% | fair +714

Corner Projections

5.3 United States projected corners

4.3 Australia projected corners

United States Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.2% | fair -159

Australia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 62.2% | fair -164

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.2% | fair +103

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.8% | fair -103

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1685 Away Elo: 1605 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +125 Raw W/D/L: 53.0/24.3/22.8% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.1% Close underdog boost: 1.06x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Netherlands vs Sweden

Sat, Jun 20 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Netherlands

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.92Netherlands projected goals

0.88Sweden projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Netherlands: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Sweden: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Netherlands

56.1%

Draw

26.7%

Sweden

17.2%

Polymarket

Netherlands57.5%

Draw24.5%

Sweden20.5%

Pick edge-1.4%

Best valueDraw +2.2%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20

Sweden 1.5 Spread | model 66.5% | fair -200

Netherlands -1.5 Spread | model 33.5% | fair +198

Over 2.5 Total | model 50.4% | fair -101

Under 2.5 Total | model 49.6% | fair +102

Yes BTTS | model 51.4% | fair -105

1-1 Exact score | 13.2% | fair +660

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +842

2-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +890

Cody Gakpo Netherlands scorer | model 34.5% | fair +190

Memphis Depay Netherlands scorer | model 31.9% | fair +213

Alexander Isak Sweden scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371

Viktor Gyokeres Sweden scorer | model 19.8% | fair +404

Corner Projections

5.5 Netherlands projected corners

4.2 Sweden projected corners

Netherlands Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.6% | fair -175

Sweden Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.8% | fair -149

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.4% | fair +103

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.6% | fair -103

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1815 Away Elo: 1650 Home attack: 1.13 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.99 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +165 Raw W/D/L: 61.7/21.6/16.7% Draw multiplier: 1.11x Low-score draw: 1.18x Favorite compression: 7.1% Close underdog boost: 1.08x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire

Sat, Jun 20 - 12:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Germany

High | pick score 2-0

2.05Germany projected goals

0.85Cote d'Ivoire projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Germany: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Cote d'Ivoire: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Germany

59.2%

Draw

25.6%

Cote d'Ivoire

15.2%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Cote d'Ivoire 1.5 Spread | model 63.1% | fair -172

Germany -1.5 Spread | model 36.9% | fair +171

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Yes BTTS | model 51.1% | fair -104

1-1 Exact score | 12.7% | fair +687

2-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +855

1-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +867

Kai Havertz Germany scorer | model 35.0% | fair +186

Jamal Musiala Germany scorer | model 28.0% | fair +258

Sebastien Haller Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 17.0% | fair +489

Simon Adingra Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 11.9% | fair +739

Corner Projections

6.0 Germany projected corners

4.1 Cote d'Ivoire projected corners

Germany Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 55.8% | fair -127

Cote d'Ivoire Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 58.8% | fair -143

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.9% | fair -127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.1% | fair +127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1785 Away Elo: 1595 Home attack: 1.12 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 1.08 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +190 Raw W/D/L: 65.3/20.2/14.5% Draw multiplier: 1.12x Low-score draw: 1.19x Favorite compression: 8.0% Close underdog boost: 1.09x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Ecuador vs Curacao

Sat, Jun 20 - 4:00 PM PDT | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Model Pick

Ecuador

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.88Ecuador projected goals

0.87Curacao projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Ecuador: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Curacao: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Ecuador

55.5%

Draw

27.0%

Curacao

17.4%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Curacao 1.5 Spread | model 67.3% | fair -204

Ecuador -1.5 Spread | model 32.7% | fair +206

Over 2.5 Total | model 49.1% | fair +104

Under 2.5 Total | model 50.9% | fair -104

Yes BTTS | model 50.5% | fair -102

1-1 Exact score | 13.3% | fair +651

1-0 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +810

2-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +880

Enner Valencia Ecuador scorer | model 37.5% | fair +167

Kendry Paez Ecuador scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361

Leandro Bacuna Curacao scorer | model 13.8% | fair +626

Rangelo Janga Curacao scorer | model 12.3% | fair +716

Corner Projections

5.5 Ecuador projected corners

3.7 Curacao projected corners

Ecuador Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.8% | fair -175

Curacao Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 51.3% | fair -105

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.0% | fair +127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.0% | fair -127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1652 Away Elo: 1485 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.90 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +167 Raw W/D/L: 61.1/22.0/16.9% Draw multiplier: 1.10x Low-score draw: 1.17x Favorite compression: 7.0% Close underdog boost: 1.08x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Tunisia vs Japan

Sat, Jun 20 - 9:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Model Pick

Japan

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.96Tunisia projected goals

1.72Japan projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Tunisia: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Japan: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Tunisia

21.2%

Draw

28.1%

Japan

50.7%

Polymarket

Tunisia13.5%

Draw23.5%

Japan63.5%

Pick edge-12.8%

Best valueTunisia +7.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tun-jpn-2026-06-21

Japan 1.5 Spread | model 93.0% | fair -1250

Tunisia -1.5 Spread | model 7.0% | fair +1324

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 51.6% | fair -106

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +625

0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +820

0-2 Exact score | 9.3% | fair +978

Youssef Msakni Tunisia scorer | model 15.0% | fair +565

Seifeddine Jaziri Tunisia scorer | model 14.2% | fair +603

Ayase Ueda Japan scorer | model 29.1% | fair +243

Takumi Minamino Japan scorer | model 22.8% | fair +339

Corner Projections

3.9 Tunisia projected corners

5.2 Japan projected corners

Tunisia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.8% | fair -116

Japan Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.0% | fair +138

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1560 Away Elo: 1690 Home attack: 0.94 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 0.96 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -130 Raw W/D/L: 20.9/23.8/55.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.7% Close underdog boost: 1.06x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Sun, Jun 21 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Spain

High | pick score 2-0

2.69Spain projected goals

0.63Saudi Arabia projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Spain: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Saudi Arabia: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Spain

74.3%

Draw

18.5%

Saudi Arabia

7.2%

Polymarket

Spain88.5%

Draw8.5%

Saudi Arabia3.6%

Pick edge-14.2%

Best valueDraw +10.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21

Saudi Arabia 1.5 Spread | model 44.9% | fair +123

Spain -1.5 Spread | model 55.1% | fair -122

Over 2.5 Total | model 60.9% | fair -156

Under 2.5 Total | model 39.1% | fair +156

Yes BTTS | model 45.4% | fair +120

2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +737

3-0 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832

1-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +983

Alvaro Morata Spain scorer | model 44.7% | fair +124

Lamine Yamal Spain scorer | model 33.2% | fair +201

Salem Al-Dawsari Saudi Arabia scorer | model 11.3% | fair +785

Firas Al-Buraikan Saudi Arabia scorer | model 10.2% | fair +884

Corner Projections

6.6 Spain projected corners

3.5 Saudi Arabia projected corners

Spain Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 65.0% | fair -185

Saudi Arabia Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.6% | fair -208

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.6% | fair -125

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.4% | fair +125

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1865 Away Elo: 1555 Home attack: 1.18 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 1.15 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +310 Raw W/D/L: 80.8/12.9/6.3% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.5% Close underdog boost: 1.12x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Belgium vs IR Iran

Sun, Jun 21 - 12:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

Belgium

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.81Belgium projected goals

0.94IR Iran projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Belgium: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. IR Iran: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Belgium

53.0%

Draw

27.5%

IR Iran

19.6%

Polymarket

Belgium67.5%

Draw20.5%

IR Iran11.5%

Pick edge-14.5%

Best valueIR Iran +8.1%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bel-irn-2026-06-21

IR Iran 1.5 Spread | model 69.7% | fair -227

Belgium -1.5 Spread | model 30.3% | fair +230

Over 2.5 Total | model 49.3% | fair +103

Under 2.5 Total | model 50.7% | fair -103

Yes BTTS | model 52.0% | fair -109

1-1 Exact score | 13.5% | fair +640

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +840

2-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +947

Romelu Lukaku Belgium scorer | model 39.8% | fair +151

Kevin De Bruyne Belgium scorer | model 19.6% | fair +411

Mehdi Taremi IR Iran scorer | model 22.4% | fair +347

Sardar Azmoun IR Iran scorer | model 17.9% | fair +459

Corner Projections

5.3 Belgium projected corners

3.8 IR Iran projected corners

Belgium Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.3% | fair -159

IR Iran Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.6% | fair -115

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.4% | fair +130

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.6% | fair -130

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1765 Away Elo: 1625 Home attack: 1.10 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 1.07 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +140 Raw W/D/L: 58.0/22.8/19.2% Draw multiplier: 1.09x Low-score draw: 1.16x Favorite compression: 6.3% Close underdog boost: 1.07x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Sun, Jun 21 - 3:00 PM PDT | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Model Pick

Uruguay

High | pick score 2-0

2.22Uruguay projected goals

0.74Cape Verde projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Uruguay: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Cape Verde: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Uruguay

64.3%

Draw

24.0%

Cape Verde

11.8%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Cape Verde 1.5 Spread | model 57.6% | fair -135

Uruguay -1.5 Spread | model 42.4% | fair +136

Over 2.5 Total | model 53.3% | fair -114

Under 2.5 Total | model 46.7% | fair +114

Yes BTTS | model 48.4% | fair +107

1-1 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +740

2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +774

1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +856

Darwin Nunez Uruguay scorer | model 45.1% | fair +122

Federico Valverde Uruguay scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361

Bebe Cape Verde scorer | model 13.2% | fair +660

Ryan Mendes Cape Verde scorer | model 11.2% | fair +792

Corner Projections

5.5 Uruguay projected corners

3.4 Cape Verde projected corners

Uruguay Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 64.8% | fair -185

Cape Verde Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 66.3% | fair -196

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.6% | fair +147

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1740 Away Elo: 1505 Home attack: 1.08 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.06 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +235 Raw W/D/L: 71.1/17.9/11.0% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.3% Close underdog boost: 1.10x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

New Zealand vs Egypt

Sun, Jun 21 - 6:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver

Model Pick

Egypt

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.96New Zealand projected goals

1.72Egypt projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. New Zealand: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Egypt: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

New Zealand

21.4%

Draw

28.1%

Egypt

50.5%

Polymarket

New Zealand16.5%

Draw23.5%

Egypt60.5%

Pick edge-10.0%

Best valueNew Zealand +4.9%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nzl-egy-2026-06-21

Egypt 1.5 Spread | model 92.9% | fair -1250

New Zealand -1.5 Spread | model 7.1% | fair +1303

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 51.7% | fair -108

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +624

0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +822

0-2 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +984

Chris Wood New Zealand scorer | model 25.8% | fair +287

Matthew Garbett New Zealand scorer | model 10.9% | fair +815

Mohamed Salah Egypt scorer | model 41.2% | fair +142

Trezeguet Egypt scorer | model 24.0% | fair +317

Corner Projections

3.9 New Zealand projected corners

5.3 Egypt projected corners

New Zealand Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.9% | fair -122

Egypt Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 60.3% | fair -152

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.5% | fair +130

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.5% | fair -130

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1495 Away Elo: 1620 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 0.91 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -125 Raw W/D/L: 21.1/23.9/55.0% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.6% Close underdog boost: 1.06x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Argentina vs Austria

Mon, Jun 22 - 10:00 AM PDT | AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Model Pick

Argentina

High | pick score 2-0

2.28Argentina projected goals

0.75Austria projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Argentina: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Austria: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Argentina

65.0%

Draw

23.5%

Austria

11.5%

Polymarket

Argentina61.5%

Draw23.5%

Austria15.5%

Pick edge+3.5%

Best valueArgentina +3.5%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22

Austria 1.5 Spread | model 56.5% | fair -130

Argentina -1.5 Spread | model 43.5% | fair +130

Over 2.5 Total | model 54.7% | fair -120

Under 2.5 Total | model 45.3% | fair +121

Yes BTTS | model 49.1% | fair +104

1-1 Exact score | 11.7% | fair +755

2-0 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +786

1-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +894

Lautaro Martinez Argentina scorer | model 43.4% | fair +130

Lionel Messi Argentina scorer | model 39.4% | fair +154

Marko Arnautovic Austria scorer | model 14.6% | fair +586

Christoph Baumgartner Austria scorer | model 12.0% | fair +735

Corner Projections

5.9 Argentina projected corners

4.0 Austria projected corners

Argentina Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 53.5% | fair -115

Austria Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 56.2% | fair -128

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -110

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +110

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1905 Away Elo: 1678 Home attack: 1.22 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.18 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +227 Raw W/D/L: 71.9/17.4/10.7% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.5% Close underdog boost: 1.10x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

France vs Iraq

Mon, Jun 22 - 2:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model Pick

France

High | pick score 3-0

3.28France projected goals

0.52Iraq projected goals

3-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. France: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Iraq: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

France

84.3%

Draw

12.1%

Iraq

3.7%

Polymarket

France89.5%

Draw7.5%

Iraq2.6%

Pick edge-5.2%

Best valueDraw +4.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22

Iraq 1.5 Spread | model 30.8% | fair +224

France -1.5 Spread | model 69.2% | fair -222

Over 2.5 Total | model 70.1% | fair -233

Under 2.5 Total | model 29.9% | fair +235

Yes BTTS | model 40.3% | fair +148

3-0 Exact score | 12.5% | fair +702

2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +775

4-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +879

Kylian Mbappe France scorer | model 63.8% | fair -175

Antoine Griezmann France scorer | model 36.8% | fair +172

Aymen Hussein Iraq scorer | model 13.0% | fair +667

Zidane Iqbal Iraq scorer | model 6.0% | fair +1562

Corner Projections

6.5 France projected corners

3.4 Iraq projected corners

France Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 62.9% | fair -169

Iraq Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 65.6% | fair -189

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1895 Away Elo: 1502 Home attack: 1.21 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.17 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +393 Raw W/D/L: 88.9/8.0/3.1% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 12.0% Close underdog boost: 1.12x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Norway vs Senegal

Mon, Jun 22 - 5:00 PM PDT | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Model Pick

Senegal

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.26Norway projected goals

1.38Senegal projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Norway: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Senegal: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Norway

33.6%

Draw

29.3%

Senegal

37.1%

Polymarket

Norway42.5%

Draw27.5%

Senegal30.5%

Pick edge+6.6%

Best valueSenegal +6.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-sen-2026-06-22

Senegal 1.5 Spread | model 85.8% | fair -588

Norway -1.5 Spread | model 14.2% | fair +605

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.4% | fair +111

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.6% | fair -111

Yes BTTS | model 54.2% | fair -119

1-1 Exact score | 14.3% | fair +598

0-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +988

1-0 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1006

Erling Haaland Norway scorer | model 36.4% | fair +175

Alexander Sorloth Norway scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371

Sadio Mane Senegal scorer | model 27.3% | fair +267

Nicolas Jackson Senegal scorer | model 19.9% | fair +403

Corner Projections

4.8 Norway projected corners

4.7 Senegal projected corners

Norway Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 52.0% | fair -109

Senegal Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 50.4% | fair -102

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1645 Away Elo: 1668 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 1.02 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -23 Raw W/D/L: 34.0/26.1/39.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Jordan vs Algeria

Mon, Jun 22 - 8:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Algeria

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.98Jordan projected goals

1.70Algeria projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Jordan: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Algeria: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Jordan

21.9%

Draw

28.2%

Algeria

49.9%

Polymarket

Jordan15.5%

Draw23.5%

Algeria61.5%

Pick edge-11.6%

Best valueJordan +6.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jor-alg-2026-06-22

Algeria 1.5 Spread | model 92.6% | fair -1250

Jordan -1.5 Spread | model 7.4% | fair +1244

Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 52.1% | fair -109

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +623

0-1 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832

0-2 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1005

Mousa Al-Taamari Jordan scorer | model 21.0% | fair +376

Yazan Al-Naimat Jordan scorer | model 20.2% | fair +394

Riyad Mahrez Algeria scorer | model 32.4% | fair +209

Amine Gouiri Algeria scorer | model 25.1% | fair +298

Corner Projections

3.9 Jordan projected corners

5.1 Algeria projected corners

Jordan Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.7% | fair -120

Algeria Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 57.0% | fair -133

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.8% | fair +145

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.2% | fair -145

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1480 Away Elo: 1600 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.90 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -120 Raw W/D/L: 21.7/24.0/54.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.4% Close underdog boost: 1.06x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Portugal vs Uzbekistan

Tue, Jun 23 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Portugal

High | pick score 2-0

2.78Portugal projected goals

0.62Uzbekistan projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Portugal: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Uzbekistan: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Portugal

75.9%

Draw

17.6%

Uzbekistan

6.6%

Polymarket

Portugal81.5%

Draw13.5%

Uzbekistan5.5%

Pick edge-5.6%

Best valueDraw +4.1%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-prt-uzb-2026-06-23

Uzbekistan 1.5 Spread | model 42.8% | fair +134

Portugal -1.5 Spread | model 57.2% | fair -133

Over 2.5 Total | model 62.4% | fair -167

Under 2.5 Total | model 37.6% | fair +166

Yes BTTS | model 44.9% | fair +122

2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +742

3-0 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +808

1-1 Exact score | 8.8% | fair +1041

Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal scorer | model 52.8% | fair -112

Goncalo Ramos Portugal scorer | model 39.4% | fair +154

Eldor Shomurodov Uzbekistan scorer | model 14.3% | fair +599

Oston Urunov Uzbekistan scorer | model 8.3% | fair +1108

Corner Projections

6.4 Portugal projected corners

3.5 Uzbekistan projected corners

Portugal Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 61.7% | fair -161

Uzbekistan Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 68.4% | fair -217

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 53.3% | fair -115

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.7% | fair +114

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1825 Away Elo: 1500 Home attack: 1.15 Away attack: 0.92 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +325 Raw W/D/L: 82.2/12.1/5.7% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.8% Close underdog boost: 1.12x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

England vs Ghana

Tue, Jun 23 - 1:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

England

High | pick score 2-0

2.41England projected goals

0.71Ghana projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. England: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Ghana: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

England

68.2%

Draw

21.9%

Ghana

9.9%

Polymarket

England80.5%

Draw14.5%

Ghana6.5%

Pick edge-12.3%

Best valueDraw +7.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-eng-gha-2026-06-23

Ghana 1.5 Spread | model 52.7% | fair -111

England -1.5 Spread | model 47.3% | fair +111

Over 2.5 Total | model 56.5% | fair -130

Under 2.5 Total | model 43.5% | fair +130

Yes BTTS | model 47.8% | fair +109

2-0 Exact score | 11.6% | fair +760

1-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +815

1-0 Exact score | 9.8% | fair +919

Harry Kane England scorer | model 51.5% | fair -106

Bukayo Saka England scorer | model 32.0% | fair +212

Mohammed Kudus Ghana scorer | model 13.2% | fair +659

Inaki Williams Ghana scorer | model 11.3% | fair +784

Corner Projections

6.0 England projected corners

3.6 Ghana projected corners

England Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 55.4% | fair -123

Ghana Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 69.7% | fair -233

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.0% | fair +104

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 51.0% | fair -104

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1845 Away Elo: 1585 Home attack: 1.16 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.14 Away defense: 0.95 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +260 Raw W/D/L: 75.1/15.9/9.0% Draw multiplier: 1.15x Low-score draw: 1.23x Favorite compression: 10.2% Close underdog boost: 1.11x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Panama vs Croatia

Tue, Jun 23 - 4:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Croatia

High | pick score 0-2

0.76Panama projected goals

2.18Croatia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Panama: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Croatia: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Panama

12.3%

Draw

24.3%

Croatia

63.3%

Polymarket

Panama13.5%

Draw23.5%

Croatia63.5%

Pick edge-0.2%

Best valueDraw +0.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-pan-hrv-2026-06-23

Croatia 1.5 Spread | model 96.8% | fair -3333

Panama -1.5 Spread | model 3.2% | fair +2990

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.8% | fair -112

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.2% | fair +112

Yes BTTS | model 48.7% | fair +105

1-1 Exact score | 12.1% | fair +728

0-2 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +783

0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +850

Jose Fajardo Panama scorer | model 13.4% | fair +646

Jose Luis Rodriguez Panama scorer | model 9.4% | fair +967

Andrej Kramaric Croatia scorer | model 35.4% | fair +183

Ivan Perisic Croatia scorer | model 24.7% | fair +305

Corner Projections

3.5 Panama projected corners

5.7 Croatia projected corners

Panama Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.2% | fair -204

Croatia Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 50.2% | fair -101

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.2% | fair +132

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.8% | fair -132

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1515 Away Elo: 1745 Home attack: 0.92 Away attack: 1.07 Home defense: 0.92 Away defense: 1.06 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -230 Raw W/D/L: 11.6/18.4/70.1% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.21x Favorite compression: 9.0% Close underdog boost: 1.10x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Colombia vs DR Congo

Tue, Jun 23 - 7:00 PM PDT | Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Model Pick

Colombia

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.99Colombia projected goals

0.87DR Congo projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Colombia: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. DR Congo: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Colombia

57.7%

Draw

26.1%

DR Congo

16.2%

Polymarket

Colombia64.5%

Draw22.5%

DR Congo12.5%

Pick edge-6.8%

Best valueDR Congo +3.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-col-cdr-2026-06-23

DR Congo 1.5 Spread | model 64.8% | fair -185

Colombia -1.5 Spread | model 35.2% | fair +184

Over 2.5 Total | model 51.3% | fair -105

Under 2.5 Total | model 48.7% | fair +105

Yes BTTS | model 51.3% | fair -105

1-1 Exact score | 12.9% | fair +673

1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +855

2-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +872

Luis Diaz Colombia scorer | model 34.1% | fair +193

Jhon Duran Colombia scorer | model 27.3% | fair +267

Yoane Wissa DR Congo scorer | model 16.6% | fair +501

Cedric Bakambu DR Congo scorer | model 14.4% | fair +593

Corner Projections

5.6 Colombia projected corners

3.9 DR Congo projected corners

Colombia Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 49.0% | fair +104

DR Congo Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.9% | fair -116

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1705 Away Elo: 1520 Home attack: 1.05 Away attack: 0.93 Home defense: 1.01 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +185 Raw W/D/L: 63.6/20.9/15.6% Draw multiplier: 1.11x Low-score draw: 1.19x Favorite compression: 7.6% Close underdog boost: 1.08x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Scotland vs Brazil

Wed, Jun 24 - 3:00 PM PDT | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Model Pick

Brazil

High | pick score 0-2

0.78Scotland projected goals

2.21Brazil projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Scotland: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Brazil: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Scotland

12.7%

Draw

24.2%

Brazil

63.1%

Polymarket

Scotland12.5%

Draw18.5%

Brazil69.5%

Pick edge-6.4%

Best valueDraw +5.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-sco-bra-2026-06-24

Brazil 1.5 Spread | model 96.6% | fair -2500

Scotland -1.5 Spread | model 3.4% | fair +2833

Over 2.5 Total | model 53.9% | fair -118

Under 2.5 Total | model 46.1% | fair +117

Yes BTTS | model 49.9% | fair +100

1-1 Exact score | 12.0% | fair +730

0-2 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +808

0-1 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +887

Scott McTominay Scotland scorer | model 13.2% | fair +660

Che Adams Scotland scorer | model 11.8% | fair +748

Vinicius Junior Brazil scorer | model 38.4% | fair +160

Rodrygo Brazil scorer | model 32.8% | fair +205

Corner Projections

3.9 Scotland projected corners

6.1 Brazil projected corners

Scotland Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 55.2% | fair -123

Brazil Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 57.6% | fair -135

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.0% | fair -122

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 45.0% | fair +122

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1615 Away Elo: 1835 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 1.17 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.12 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -220 Raw W/D/L: 11.9/18.3/69.8% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.21x Favorite compression: 9.0% Close underdog boost: 1.10x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Morocco vs Haiti

Wed, Jun 24 - 3:00 PM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Morocco

High | pick score 2-0

2.16Morocco projected goals

0.76Haiti projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Morocco: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Haiti: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Morocco

62.9%

Draw

24.5%

Haiti

12.5%

Polymarket

Morocco76.5%

Draw16.5%

Haiti7.5%

Pick edge-13.6%

Best valueDraw +8.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-mar-hai-2026-06-24

Haiti 1.5 Spread | model 59.1% | fair -145

Morocco -1.5 Spread | model 40.9% | fair +145

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.4% | fair -110

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.6% | fair +110

Yes BTTS | model 48.6% | fair +106

1-1 Exact score | 12.2% | fair +722

2-0 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +782

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +840

Youssef En-Nesyri Morocco scorer | model 37.9% | fair +164

Achraf Hakimi Morocco scorer | model 19.4% | fair +414

Duckens Nazon Haiti scorer | model 16.6% | fair +501

Frantzdy Pierrot Haiti scorer | model 13.4% | fair +646

Corner Projections

5.7 Morocco projected corners

3.5 Haiti projected corners

Morocco Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 49.8% | fair +101

Haiti Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.2% | fair -204

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.9% | fair +133

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 57.1% | fair -133

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1695 Away Elo: 1468 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.89 Home defense: 1.03 Away defense: 0.89 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +227 Raw W/D/L: 69.7/18.6/11.8% Draw multiplier: 1.13x Low-score draw: 1.21x Favorite compression: 8.9% Close underdog boost: 1.10x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Czechia vs Mexico

Wed, Jun 24 - 4:00 PM PDT | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Model Pick

Mexico

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.14Czechia projected goals

1.47Mexico projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Czechia: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Mexico: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Czechia

29.0%

Draw

29.3%

Mexico

41.8%

Polymarket

Czechia29.5%

Draw24.5%

Mexico46.5%

Pick edge-4.7%

Best valueDraw +4.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-cze-mex-2026-06-24

Mexico 1.5 Spread | model 88.7% | fair -769

Czechia -1.5 Spread | model 11.3% | fair +787

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.5% | fair +115

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.5% | fair -115

Yes BTTS | model 53.0% | fair -112

1-1 Exact score | 14.3% | fair +599

0-1 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +888

0-0 Exact score | 8.6% | fair +1069

Patrik Schick Czechia scorer | model 25.6% | fair +291

Adam Hlozek Czechia scorer | model 15.7% | fair +539

Santiago Gimenez Mexico scorer | model 28.7% | fair +248

Hirving Lozano Mexico scorer | model 21.0% | fair +376

Corner Projections

4.6 Czechia projected corners

5.0 Mexico projected corners

Czechia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 67.1% | fair -204

Mexico Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 55.8% | fair -127

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 48.8% | fair +105

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 51.2% | fair -105

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1638 Away Elo: 1665 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 0.99 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: -45 Elo Total Elo delta: -72 Raw W/D/L: 29.2/25.9/44.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

South Africa vs South Korea

Wed, Jun 24 - 4:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Model Pick

South Korea

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.07South Africa projected goals

1.57South Korea projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. South Africa: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. South Korea: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

South Africa

25.7%

Draw

28.8%

South Korea

45.5%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

South Korea 1.5 Spread | model 90.6% | fair -1000

South Africa -1.5 Spread | model 9.4% | fair +960

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.1% | fair +112

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.9% | fair -112

Yes BTTS | model 52.6% | fair -111

1-1 Exact score | 14.1% | fair +610

0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +854

1-2 Exact score | 8.8% | fair +1041

Percy Tau South Africa scorer | model 19.2% | fair +421

Evidence Makgopa South Africa scorer | model 15.7% | fair +538

Son Heung-min South Korea scorer | model 35.6% | fair +181

Hwang Hee-chan South Korea scorer | model 23.4% | fair +327

Corner Projections

4.2 South Africa projected corners

5.2 South Korea projected corners

South Africa Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 60.2% | fair -152

South Korea Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.9% | fair -143

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.0% | fair +118

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 54.0% | fair -118

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1545 Away Elo: 1630 Home attack: 0.94 Away attack: 1.00 Home defense: 0.94 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -85 Raw W/D/L: 25.8/25.2/49.0% Draw multiplier: 1.07x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.2% Close underdog boost: 1.05x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Canada vs Switzerland

Thu, Jun 25 - 12:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver

Model Pick

Switzerland

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.14Canada projected goals

1.45Switzerland projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Canada: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Switzerland: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Canada

29.4%

Draw

29.4%

Switzerland

41.3%

Polymarket

Canada29.5%

Draw31.5%

Switzerland39.5%

Pick edge+1.8%

Best valueSwitzerland +1.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-che-can-2026-06-24

Switzerland 1.5 Spread | model 88.5% | fair -769

Canada -1.5 Spread | model 11.5% | fair +773

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.2% | fair +116

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.8% | fair -116

Yes BTTS | model 52.8% | fair -111

1-1 Exact score | 14.3% | fair +597

0-1 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +885

0-0 Exact score | 8.7% | fair +1055

Jonathan David Canada scorer | model 26.5% | fair +278

Alphonso Davies Canada scorer | model 13.8% | fair +627

Breel Embolo Switzerland scorer | model 25.2% | fair +296

Ruben Vargas Switzerland scorer | model 17.2% | fair +480

Corner Projections

4.4 Canada projected corners

4.9 Switzerland projected corners

Canada Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 64.3% | fair -179

Switzerland Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 54.5% | fair -119

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 45.6% | fair +119

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 54.4% | fair -119

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1635 Away Elo: 1715 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 0.97 Away defense: 1.05 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: -35 Raw W/D/L: 29.6/26.0/44.4% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar

Thu, Jun 25 - 12:00 PM PDT | Lumen Field, Seattle

Model Pick

Qatar

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.31Bosnia and Herzegovina projected goals

1.29Qatar projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Availability status: Baseline. Bosnia and Herzegovina: No lineup data; using baseline team rating. Qatar: No lineup data; using baseline team rating.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

34.7%

Draw

29.5%

Qatar

35.7%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Qatar 1.5 Spread | model 84.5% | fair -556

Bosnia and Herzegovina -1.5 Spread | model 15.5% | fair +545

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.5% | fair +115

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.5% | fair -115

Yes BTTS | model 53.5% | fair -115

1-1 Exact score | 14.4% | fair +593

0-1 Exact score | 9.6% | fair +939

1-0 Exact score | 9.1% | fair +1003

Edin Dzeko Bosnia and Herzegovina scorer | model 28.0% | fair +257

Ermedin Demirovic Bosnia and Herzegovina scorer | model 23.1% | fair +333

Akram Afif Qatar scorer | model 26.6% | fair +276

Almoez Ali Qatar scorer | model 24.7% | fair +305

Corner Projections

4.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina projected corners

4.4 Qatar projected corners

Bosnia and Herzegovina Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 49.7% | fair +101

Qatar Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 63.8% | fair -175

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 41.7% | fair +140

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 58.3% | fair -139

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1568 Away Elo: 1565 Home attack: 0.96 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 0.94 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +3 Raw W/D/L: 37.4/26.4/36.2% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x Home availability attack: +0.0% Home availability defense: +0.0% Away availability attack: +0.0% Away availability defense: +0.0%

Results

Match	Final	Model Pick	Model Prob	Polymarket Edge Pick	Edge Pick Prob	Edge Detail	Actual	Projected Goals	Source
Portugal vs DR Congo	Pending	Portugal	73.5%	Draw	18.9%	market 17.5% \| edge +1.4%	Pending	2.66-0.65	pending
England vs Croatia	Pending	England	48.2%	Croatia	23.4%	market 17.5% \| edge +5.9%	Pending	1.65-1.02	pending
Ghana vs Panama	Pending	Ghana	43.5%	Ghana	43.5%	market 41.5% \| edge +2.0%	Pending	1.52-1.10	pending
Uzbekistan vs Colombia	Pending	Colombia	60.1%	Draw	25.4%	market 19.5% \| edge +5.9%	Pending	0.83-2.08	pending
Czechia vs South Africa	Pending	Czechia	46.4%	South Africa	24.8%	market 20.5% \| edge +4.3%	Pending	1.59-1.04	pending
Canada vs Qatar	Pending	Canada	47.4%	Qatar	24.1%	market 8.5% \| edge +15.6%	Pending	1.63-1.03	pending
Mexico vs South Korea	Pending	Mexico	42.9%				Pending	1.51-1.12	pending
Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	Pending	Switzerland	53.3%				Pending	1.81-0.92	pending
Brazil vs Haiti	Pending	Brazil	81.6%	Draw	13.9%	market 8.2% \| edge +5.6%	Pending	3.10-0.55	pending
Scotland vs Morocco	Pending	Morocco	44.6%	Scotland	26.5%	market 17.5% \| edge +9.0%	Pending	1.08-1.54	pending
Turkey vs Paraguay	Pending	Turkey	38.3%				Pending	1.40-1.22	pending
United States vs Australia	Pending	United States	48.8%	Draw	28.3%	market 21.5% \| edge +6.8%	Pending	1.67-1.01	pending
Netherlands vs Sweden	Pending	Netherlands	56.1%	Draw	26.7%	market 24.5% \| edge +2.2%	Pending	1.92-0.88	pending
Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire	Pending	Germany	59.2%				Pending	2.05-0.85	pending
Ecuador vs Curacao	Pending	Ecuador	55.5%				Pending	1.88-0.87	pending
Tunisia vs Japan	Pending	Japan	50.7%	Tunisia	21.2%	market 13.5% \| edge +7.7%	Pending	0.96-1.72	pending
Spain vs Saudi Arabia	Pending	Spain	74.3%	Draw	18.5%	market 8.5% \| edge +10.0%	Pending	2.69-0.63	pending
Belgium vs IR Iran	Pending	Belgium	53.0%	IR Iran	19.6%	market 11.5% \| edge +8.1%	Pending	1.81-0.94	pending
Uruguay vs Cape Verde	Pending	Uruguay	64.3%				Pending	2.22-0.74	pending
New Zealand vs Egypt	Pending	Egypt	50.5%	New Zealand	21.4%	market 16.5% \| edge +4.9%	Pending	0.96-1.72	pending
Argentina vs Austria	Pending	Argentina	65.0%	Argentina	65.0%	market 61.5% \| edge +3.5%	Pending	2.28-0.75	pending
France vs Iraq	Pending	France	84.3%	Draw	12.1%	market 7.5% \| edge +4.6%	Pending	3.28-0.52	pending
Norway vs Senegal	Pending	Senegal	37.1%	Senegal	37.1%	market 30.5% \| edge +6.6%	Pending	1.26-1.38	pending
Jordan vs Algeria	Pending	Algeria	49.9%	Jordan	21.9%	market 15.5% \| edge +6.4%	Pending	0.98-1.70	pending
Portugal vs Uzbekistan	Pending	Portugal	75.9%	Draw	17.6%	market 13.5% \| edge +4.1%	Pending	2.78-0.62	pending
England vs Ghana	Pending	England	68.2%	Draw	21.9%	market 14.5% \| edge +7.4%	Pending	2.41-0.71	pending
Panama vs Croatia	Pending	Croatia	63.3%	Draw	24.3%	market 23.5% \| edge +0.8%	Pending	0.76-2.18	pending
Colombia vs DR Congo	Pending	Colombia	57.7%	DR Congo	16.2%	market 12.5% \| edge +3.7%	Pending	1.99-0.87	pending
Scotland vs Brazil	Pending	Brazil	63.1%	Draw	24.2%	market 18.5% \| edge +5.7%	Pending	0.78-2.21	pending
Morocco vs Haiti	Pending	Morocco	62.9%	Draw	24.5%	market 16.5% \| edge +8.0%	Pending	2.16-0.76	pending
Czechia vs Mexico	Pending	Mexico	41.8%	Draw	29.3%	market 24.5% \| edge +4.8%	Pending	1.14-1.47	pending
South Africa vs South Korea	Pending	South Korea	45.5%				Pending	1.07-1.57	pending
Canada vs Switzerland	Pending	Switzerland	41.3%	Switzerland	41.3%	market 39.5% \| edge +1.8%	Pending	1.14-1.45	pending
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar	Pending	Qatar	35.7%				Pending	1.31-1.29	pending