World Cup Betting Model

Projected Goals

Projected goals are expected goals: the average goals a team would score across many simulations from its attack rating, opponent defense, Elo strength, venue context, and host adjustment. They are not a literal final score.

Pick Scoreline

The displayed scoreline is constrained to the selected betting pick. The model may still know that a draw is a common exact score, but it will not show 1-1 beside a team-win recommendation.

Market Coverage

Polymarket prices appear when an active match market can be found. If the live lookup misses but a previous price was saved, the report shows it as cached; otherwise the match is marked clearly as missing.

Upset Calibration

Final probabilities include a soccer calibration layer that raises low-score draws, compresses heavy favorites, and gives close underdog wins a modest boost before picks and market edges are calculated.

Upcoming

Czechia vs South Africa

Thu, Jun 18 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Czechia

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.59Czechia projected goals

1.04South Africa projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Czechia

46.4%

Draw

28.8%

South Africa

24.8%

Polymarket

Czechia54.5%

Draw25.5%

South Africa20.5%

Pick edge-8.1%

Best valueSouth Africa +4.3%

Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18))))

South Africa 1.5 Spread | model 75.8% | fair -312

Czechia -1.5 Spread | model 24.2% | fair +314

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.9% | fair +113

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.1% | fair -114

Yes BTTS | model 52.3% | fair -110

1-1 Exact score | 14.1% | fair +611

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +839

2-1 Exact score | 8.8% | fair +1035

Patrik Schick Czechia scorer | model 33.9% | fair +195

Adam Hlozek Czechia scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371

Percy Tau South Africa scorer | model 18.8% | fair +432

Evidence Makgopa South Africa scorer | model 15.3% | fair +552

Corner Projections

5.2 Czechia projected corners

4.1 South Africa projected corners

Czechia Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 60.2% | fair -152

South Africa Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.1% | fair -145

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.2% | fair +117

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 53.8% | fair -116

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1638 Away Elo: 1545 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.94 Home defense: 0.99 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +93 Raw W/D/L: 50.1/25.1/24.8% Draw multiplier: 1.07x Low-score draw: 1.14x Favorite compression: 4.5% Close underdog boost: 1.05x

Canada vs Qatar

Thu, Jun 18 - 3:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver

Model Pick

Canada

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.63Canada projected goals

1.03Qatar projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Canada

47.4%

Draw

28.5%

Qatar

24.1%

Polymarket

Canada75.5%

Draw16.5%

Qatar8.5%

Pick edge-28.1%

Best valueQatar +15.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18

Qatar 1.5 Spread | model 74.9% | fair -294

Canada -1.5 Spread | model 25.1% | fair +298

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.7% | fair +109

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.3% | fair -110

Yes BTTS | model 52.7% | fair -111

1-1 Exact score | 14.0% | fair +616

1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +851

2-1 Exact score | 8.9% | fair +1026

Jonathan David Canada scorer | model 35.7% | fair +180

Alphonso Davies Canada scorer | model 19.1% | fair +423

Akram Afif Qatar scorer | model 22.0% | fair +355

Almoez Ali Qatar scorer | model 20.4% | fair +391

Corner Projections

5.3 Canada projected corners

4.2 Qatar projected corners

Canada Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.3% | fair -159

Qatar Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 60.4% | fair -152

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 48.0% | fair +108

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.0% | fair -109

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1635 Away Elo: 1565 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 0.97 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +115 Raw W/D/L: 51.3/24.7/24.0% Draw multiplier: 1.07x Low-score draw: 1.14x Favorite compression: 4.8% Close underdog boost: 1.05x

Mexico vs South Korea

Thu, Jun 18 - 6:00 PM PDT | Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Model Pick

Mexico

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.51Mexico projected goals

1.12South Korea projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Mexico

42.9%

Draw

29.1%

South Korea

28.0%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

South Korea 1.5 Spread | model 78.6% | fair -370

Mexico -1.5 Spread | model 21.4% | fair +367

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.0% | fair +113

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.0% | fair -112

Yes BTTS | model 53.1% | fair -114

1-1 Exact score | 14.2% | fair +604

1-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +884

2-1 Exact score | 8.6% | fair +1065

Santiago Gimenez Mexico scorer | model 29.3% | fair +241

Hirving Lozano Mexico scorer | model 21.4% | fair +367

Son Heung-min South Korea scorer | model 26.9% | fair +271

Hwang Hee-chan South Korea scorer | model 17.3% | fair +477

Corner Projections

5.1 Mexico projected corners

4.5 South Korea projected corners

Mexico Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 57.0% | fair -133

South Korea Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 66.0% | fair -192

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 48.8% | fair +105

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 51.2% | fair -105

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1665 Away Elo: 1630 Home attack: 1.01 Away attack: 1.00 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +80 Raw W/D/L: 46.1/25.7/28.2% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Thu, Jun 18 - 7:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

Switzerland

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.81Switzerland projected goals

0.92Bosnia and Herzegovina projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Switzerland

53.3%

Draw

27.5%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

19.2%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.5 Spread | model 69.4% | fair -227

Switzerland -1.5 Spread | model 30.6% | fair +227

Over 2.5 Total | model 48.7% | fair +106

Under 2.5 Total | model 51.3% | fair -105

Yes BTTS | model 51.3% | fair -105

1-1 Exact score | 13.5% | fair +638

1-0 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +819

2-0 Exact score | 9.7% | fair +926

Breel Embolo Switzerland scorer | model 30.4% | fair +229

Ruben Vargas Switzerland scorer | model 21.0% | fair +377

Edin Dzeko Bosnia and Herzegovina scorer | model 20.5% | fair +389

Ermedin Demirovic Bosnia and Herzegovina scorer | model 16.7% | fair +497

Corner Projections

5.1 Switzerland projected corners

3.8 Bosnia and Herzegovina projected corners

Switzerland Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139

Bosnia and Herzegovina Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.6% | fair -115

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.8% | fair +145

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.2% | fair -145

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1715 Away Elo: 1568 Home attack: 1.04 Away attack: 0.96 Home defense: 1.05 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +147 Raw W/D/L: 58.4/22.8/18.7% Draw multiplier: 1.09x Low-score draw: 1.16x Favorite compression: 6.4% Close underdog boost: 1.07x

Brazil vs Haiti

Fri, Jun 19 - 12:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model Pick

Brazil

High | pick score 3-0

3.10Brazil projected goals

0.55Haiti projected goals

3-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Brazil

81.6%

Draw

13.9%

Haiti

4.5%

Polymarket

Brazil88.5%

Draw8.0%

Haiti4.1%

Pick edge-6.9%

Best valueDraw +5.9%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19

Haiti 1.5 Spread | model 34.8% | fair +187

Brazil -1.5 Spread | model 65.2% | fair -189

Over 2.5 Total | model 67.5% | fair -208

Under 2.5 Total | model 32.5% | fair +208

Yes BTTS | model 42.1% | fair +138

3-0 Exact score | 12.1% | fair +729

2-0 Exact score | 11.7% | fair +757

4-0 Exact score | 9.4% | fair +969

Vinicius Junior Brazil scorer | model 49.5% | fair +102

Rodrygo Brazil scorer | model 42.8% | fair +134

Duckens Nazon Haiti scorer | model 12.4% | fair +706

Frantzdy Pierrot Haiti scorer | model 10.0% | fair +905

Corner Projections

6.8 Brazil projected corners

3.4 Haiti projected corners

Brazil Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 67.4% | fair -208

Haiti Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 66.9% | fair -200

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 57.3% | fair -133

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.7% | fair +134

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1835 Away Elo: 1468 Home attack: 1.17 Away attack: 0.89 Home defense: 1.12 Away defense: 0.89 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +367 Raw W/D/L: 86.8/9.3/3.9% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 12.0% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Scotland vs Morocco

Fri, Jun 19 - 3:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

Morocco

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.08Scotland projected goals

1.54Morocco projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Scotland

26.5%

Draw

28.9%

Morocco

44.6%

Polymarket

Scotland17.5%

Draw26.5%

Morocco56.5%

Pick edge-11.9%

Best valueScotland +9.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-sco-mar-2026-06-19

Morocco 1.5 Spread | model 90.2% | fair -909

Scotland -1.5 Spread | model 9.8% | fair +918

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.6% | fair +114

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.4% | fair -115

Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110

1-1 Exact score | 14.2% | fair +607

0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +852

1-2 Exact score | 8.7% | fair +1050

Scott McTominay Scotland scorer | model 17.6% | fair +468

Che Adams Scotland scorer | model 15.8% | fair +532

Youssef En-Nesyri Morocco scorer | model 28.7% | fair +249

Achraf Hakimi Morocco scorer | model 14.2% | fair +602

Corner Projections

4.3 Scotland projected corners

5.0 Morocco projected corners

Scotland Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 61.5% | fair -159

Morocco Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 55.1% | fair -123

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.0% | fair +127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.0% | fair -127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1615 Away Elo: 1695 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 1.03 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.03 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -80 Raw W/D/L: 26.6/25.5/47.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Turkey vs Paraguay

Fri, Jun 19 - 7:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Turkey

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.40Turkey projected goals

1.22Paraguay projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Turkey

38.3%

Draw

29.4%

Paraguay

32.3%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Paraguay 1.5 Spread | model 82.0% | fair -455

Turkey -1.5 Spread | model 18.0% | fair +456

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.9% | fair +113

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.1% | fair -114

Yes BTTS | model 53.7% | fair -116

1-1 Exact score | 14.4% | fair +596

1-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +950

0-1 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1015

Kenan Yildiz Turkey scorer | model 22.3% | fair +349

Kerem Akturkoglu Turkey scorer | model 20.1% | fair +398

Miguel Almiron Paraguay scorer | model 19.7% | fair +408

Julio Enciso Paraguay scorer | model 18.7% | fair +435

Corner Projections

5.1 Turkey projected corners

4.6 Paraguay projected corners

Turkey Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139

Paraguay Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 66.9% | fair -204

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.3% | fair -101

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.7% | fair +101

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1658 Away Elo: 1628 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +30 Raw W/D/L: 41.2/26.2/32.7% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

United States vs Australia

Fri, Jun 19 - 10:00 PM PDT | Lumen Field, Seattle

Model Pick

United States

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.67United States projected goals

1.01Australia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

United States

48.8%

Draw

28.3%

Australia

22.9%

Polymarket

United States61.5%

Draw21.5%

Australia18.5%

Pick edge-12.7%

Best valueDraw +6.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-usa-aus-2026-06-19

Australia 1.5 Spread | model 73.6% | fair -278

United States -1.5 Spread | model 26.4% | fair +279

Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110

1-1 Exact score | 13.9% | fair +620

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +844

2-1 Exact score | 8.9% | fair +1018

Christian Pulisic United States scorer | model 30.8% | fair +225

Folarin Balogun United States scorer | model 28.5% | fair +251

Mitchell Duke Australia scorer | model 18.3% | fair +448

Jackson Irvine Australia scorer | model 12.3% | fair +714

Corner Projections

5.3 United States projected corners

4.3 Australia projected corners

United States Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.2% | fair -159

Australia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 62.2% | fair -164

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.2% | fair +103

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.8% | fair -103

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1685 Away Elo: 1605 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +125 Raw W/D/L: 53.0/24.3/22.8% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.1% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Netherlands vs Sweden

Sat, Jun 20 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Netherlands

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.92Netherlands projected goals

0.88Sweden projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Netherlands

56.1%

Draw

26.7%

Sweden

17.2%

Polymarket

Netherlands57.5%

Draw24.5%

Sweden19.5%

Pick edge-1.4%

Best valueDraw +2.2%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20

Sweden 1.5 Spread | model 66.5% | fair -200

Netherlands -1.5 Spread | model 33.5% | fair +198

Over 2.5 Total | model 50.4% | fair -101

Under 2.5 Total | model 49.6% | fair +102

Yes BTTS | model 51.4% | fair -105

1-1 Exact score | 13.2% | fair +660

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +842

2-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +890

Cody Gakpo Netherlands scorer | model 34.5% | fair +190

Memphis Depay Netherlands scorer | model 31.9% | fair +213

Alexander Isak Sweden scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371

Viktor Gyokeres Sweden scorer | model 19.8% | fair +404

Corner Projections

5.5 Netherlands projected corners

4.2 Sweden projected corners

Netherlands Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.6% | fair -175

Sweden Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.8% | fair -149

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.4% | fair +103

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.6% | fair -103

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1815 Away Elo: 1650 Home attack: 1.13 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.99 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +165 Raw W/D/L: 61.7/21.6/16.7% Draw multiplier: 1.11x Low-score draw: 1.18x Favorite compression: 7.1% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire

Sat, Jun 20 - 12:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Germany

High | pick score 2-0

2.05Germany projected goals

0.85Cote d'Ivoire projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Germany

59.2%

Draw

25.6%

Cote d'Ivoire

15.2%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Cote d'Ivoire 1.5 Spread | model 63.1% | fair -172

Germany -1.5 Spread | model 36.9% | fair +171

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Yes BTTS | model 51.1% | fair -104

1-1 Exact score | 12.7% | fair +687

2-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +855

1-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +867

Kai Havertz Germany scorer | model 35.0% | fair +186

Jamal Musiala Germany scorer | model 28.0% | fair +258

Sebastien Haller Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 17.0% | fair +489

Simon Adingra Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 11.9% | fair +739

Corner Projections

6.0 Germany projected corners

4.1 Cote d'Ivoire projected corners

Germany Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 55.8% | fair -127

Cote d'Ivoire Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 58.8% | fair -143

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.9% | fair -127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.1% | fair +127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1785 Away Elo: 1595 Home attack: 1.12 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 1.08 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +190 Raw W/D/L: 65.3/20.2/14.5% Draw multiplier: 1.12x Low-score draw: 1.19x Favorite compression: 8.0% Close underdog boost: 1.09x

Ecuador vs Curacao

Sat, Jun 20 - 4:00 PM PDT | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Model Pick

Ecuador

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.88Ecuador projected goals

0.87Curacao projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Ecuador

55.5%

Draw

27.0%

Curacao

17.4%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Curacao 1.5 Spread | model 67.3% | fair -204

Ecuador -1.5 Spread | model 32.7% | fair +206

Over 2.5 Total | model 49.1% | fair +104

Under 2.5 Total | model 50.9% | fair -104

Yes BTTS | model 50.5% | fair -102

1-1 Exact score | 13.3% | fair +651

1-0 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +810

2-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +880

Enner Valencia Ecuador scorer | model 37.5% | fair +167

Kendry Paez Ecuador scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361

Leandro Bacuna Curacao scorer | model 13.8% | fair +626

Rangelo Janga Curacao scorer | model 12.3% | fair +716

Corner Projections

5.5 Ecuador projected corners

3.7 Curacao projected corners

Ecuador Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.8% | fair -175

Curacao Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 51.3% | fair -105

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.0% | fair +127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.0% | fair -127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1652 Away Elo: 1485 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.90 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +167 Raw W/D/L: 61.1/22.0/16.9% Draw multiplier: 1.10x Low-score draw: 1.17x Favorite compression: 7.0% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Tunisia vs Japan

Sat, Jun 20 - 9:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Model Pick

Japan

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.96Tunisia projected goals

1.72Japan projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Tunisia

21.2%

Draw

28.1%

Japan

50.7%

Polymarket

Tunisia12.5%

Draw23.5%

Japan64.5%

Pick edge-13.8%

Best valueTunisia +8.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tun-jpn-2026-06-21

Japan 1.5 Spread | model 93.0% | fair -1250

Tunisia -1.5 Spread | model 7.0% | fair +1324

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 51.6% | fair -106

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +625

0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +820

0-2 Exact score | 9.3% | fair +978

Youssef Msakni Tunisia scorer | model 15.0% | fair +565

Seifeddine Jaziri Tunisia scorer | model 14.2% | fair +603

Ayase Ueda Japan scorer | model 29.1% | fair +243

Takumi Minamino Japan scorer | model 22.8% | fair +339

Corner Projections

3.9 Tunisia projected corners

5.2 Japan projected corners

Tunisia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.8% | fair -116

Japan Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.0% | fair +138

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1560 Away Elo: 1690 Home attack: 0.94 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 0.96 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -130 Raw W/D/L: 20.9/23.8/55.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.7% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Sun, Jun 21 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Spain

High | pick score 2-0

2.69Spain projected goals

0.63Saudi Arabia projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Spain

74.3%

Draw

18.5%

Saudi Arabia

7.2%

Polymarket

Spain87.5%

Draw8.5%

Saudi Arabia4.0%

Pick edge-13.2%

Best valueDraw +10.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21

Saudi Arabia 1.5 Spread | model 44.9% | fair +123

Spain -1.5 Spread | model 55.1% | fair -122

Over 2.5 Total | model 60.9% | fair -156

Under 2.5 Total | model 39.1% | fair +156

Yes BTTS | model 45.4% | fair +120

2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +737

3-0 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832

1-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +983

Alvaro Morata Spain scorer | model 44.7% | fair +124

Lamine Yamal Spain scorer | model 33.2% | fair +201

Salem Al-Dawsari Saudi Arabia scorer | model 11.3% | fair +785

Firas Al-Buraikan Saudi Arabia scorer | model 10.2% | fair +884

Corner Projections

6.6 Spain projected corners

3.5 Saudi Arabia projected corners

Spain Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 65.0% | fair -185

Saudi Arabia Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.6% | fair -208

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.6% | fair -125

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.4% | fair +125

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1865 Away Elo: 1555 Home attack: 1.18 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 1.15 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +310 Raw W/D/L: 80.8/12.9/6.3% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.5% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Belgium vs IR Iran

Sun, Jun 21 - 12:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

Belgium

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.81Belgium projected goals

0.94IR Iran projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Belgium

53.0%

Draw

27.5%

IR Iran

19.6%

Polymarket

Belgium68.5%

Draw20.5%

IR Iran11.5%

Pick edge-15.5%

Best valueIR Iran +8.1%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bel-irn-2026-06-21

IR Iran 1.5 Spread | model 69.7% | fair -227

Belgium -1.5 Spread | model 30.3% | fair +230

Over 2.5 Total | model 49.3% | fair +103

Under 2.5 Total | model 50.7% | fair -103

Yes BTTS | model 52.0% | fair -109

1-1 Exact score | 13.5% | fair +640

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +840

2-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +947

Romelu Lukaku Belgium scorer | model 39.8% | fair +151

Kevin De Bruyne Belgium scorer | model 19.6% | fair +411

Mehdi Taremi IR Iran scorer | model 22.4% | fair +347

Sardar Azmoun IR Iran scorer | model 17.9% | fair +459

Corner Projections

5.3 Belgium projected corners

3.8 IR Iran projected corners

Belgium Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.3% | fair -159

IR Iran Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.6% | fair -115

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.4% | fair +130

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.6% | fair -130

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1765 Away Elo: 1625 Home attack: 1.10 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 1.07 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +140 Raw W/D/L: 58.0/22.8/19.2% Draw multiplier: 1.09x Low-score draw: 1.16x Favorite compression: 6.3% Close underdog boost: 1.07x

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Sun, Jun 21 - 3:00 PM PDT | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Model Pick

Uruguay

High | pick score 2-0

2.22Uruguay projected goals

0.74Cape Verde projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Uruguay

64.3%

Draw

24.0%

Cape Verde

11.8%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Cape Verde 1.5 Spread | model 57.6% | fair -135

Uruguay -1.5 Spread | model 42.4% | fair +136

Over 2.5 Total | model 53.3% | fair -114

Under 2.5 Total | model 46.7% | fair +114

Yes BTTS | model 48.4% | fair +107

1-1 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +740

2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +774

1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +856

Darwin Nunez Uruguay scorer | model 45.1% | fair +122

Federico Valverde Uruguay scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361

Bebe Cape Verde scorer | model 13.2% | fair +660

Ryan Mendes Cape Verde scorer | model 11.2% | fair +792

Corner Projections

5.5 Uruguay projected corners

3.4 Cape Verde projected corners

Uruguay Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 64.8% | fair -185

Cape Verde Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 66.3% | fair -196

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.6% | fair +147

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1740 Away Elo: 1505 Home attack: 1.08 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.06 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +235 Raw W/D/L: 71.1/17.9/11.0% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.3% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

New Zealand vs Egypt

Sun, Jun 21 - 6:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver

Model Pick

Egypt

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.96New Zealand projected goals

1.72Egypt projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

New Zealand

21.4%

Draw

28.1%

Egypt

50.5%

Polymarket

New Zealand16.5%

Draw23.5%

Egypt59.5%

Pick edge-9.0%

Best valueNew Zealand +4.9%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nzl-egy-2026-06-21

Egypt 1.5 Spread | model 92.9% | fair -1250

New Zealand -1.5 Spread | model 7.1% | fair +1303

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 51.7% | fair -108

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +624

0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +822

0-2 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +984

Chris Wood New Zealand scorer | model 25.8% | fair +287

Matthew Garbett New Zealand scorer | model 10.9% | fair +815

Mohamed Salah Egypt scorer | model 41.2% | fair +142

Trezeguet Egypt scorer | model 24.0% | fair +317

Corner Projections

3.9 New Zealand projected corners

5.3 Egypt projected corners

New Zealand Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.9% | fair -122

Egypt Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 60.3% | fair -152

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.5% | fair +130

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.5% | fair -130

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1495 Away Elo: 1620 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 0.91 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -125 Raw W/D/L: 21.1/23.9/55.0% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.6% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Argentina vs Austria

Mon, Jun 22 - 10:00 AM PDT | AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Model Pick

Argentina

High | pick score 2-0

2.28Argentina projected goals

0.75Austria projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Argentina

65.0%

Draw

23.5%

Austria

11.5%

Polymarket

Argentina61.5%

Draw23.5%

Austria14.5%

Pick edge+3.5%

Best valueArgentina +3.5%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22

Austria 1.5 Spread | model 56.5% | fair -130

Argentina -1.5 Spread | model 43.5% | fair +130

Over 2.5 Total | model 54.7% | fair -120

Under 2.5 Total | model 45.3% | fair +121

Yes BTTS | model 49.1% | fair +104

1-1 Exact score | 11.7% | fair +755

2-0 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +786

1-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +894

Lautaro Martinez Argentina scorer | model 43.4% | fair +130

Lionel Messi Argentina scorer | model 39.4% | fair +154

Marko Arnautovic Austria scorer | model 14.6% | fair +586

Christoph Baumgartner Austria scorer | model 12.0% | fair +735

Corner Projections

5.9 Argentina projected corners

4.0 Austria projected corners

Argentina Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 53.5% | fair -115

Austria Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 56.2% | fair -128

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -110

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +110

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1905 Away Elo: 1678 Home attack: 1.22 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.18 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +227 Raw W/D/L: 71.9/17.4/10.7% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.5% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

France vs Iraq

Mon, Jun 22 - 2:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model Pick

France

High | pick score 3-0

3.28France projected goals

0.52Iraq projected goals

3-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

France

84.3%

Draw

12.1%

Iraq

3.7%

Polymarket

France88.5%

Draw9.5%

Iraq3.2%

Pick edge-4.2%

Best valueDraw +2.6%

Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22))))

Iraq 1.5 Spread | model 30.8% | fair +224

France -1.5 Spread | model 69.2% | fair -222

Over 2.5 Total | model 70.1% | fair -233

Under 2.5 Total | model 29.9% | fair +235

Yes BTTS | model 40.3% | fair +148

3-0 Exact score | 12.5% | fair +702

2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +775

4-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +879

Kylian Mbappe France scorer | model 63.8% | fair -175

Antoine Griezmann France scorer | model 36.8% | fair +172

Aymen Hussein Iraq scorer | model 13.0% | fair +667

Zidane Iqbal Iraq scorer | model 6.0% | fair +1562

Corner Projections

6.5 France projected corners

3.4 Iraq projected corners

France Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 62.9% | fair -169

Iraq Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 65.6% | fair -189

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1895 Away Elo: 1502 Home attack: 1.21 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.17 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +393 Raw W/D/L: 88.9/8.0/3.1% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 12.0% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Norway vs Senegal

Mon, Jun 22 - 5:00 PM PDT | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Model Pick

Senegal

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.26Norway projected goals

1.38Senegal projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Norway

33.6%

Draw

29.3%

Senegal

37.1%

Polymarket

Norway41.5%

Draw27.5%

Senegal31.5%

Pick edge+5.6%

Best valueSenegal +5.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-sen-2026-06-22

Senegal 1.5 Spread | model 85.8% | fair -588

Norway -1.5 Spread | model 14.2% | fair +605

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.4% | fair +111

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.6% | fair -111

Yes BTTS | model 54.2% | fair -119

1-1 Exact score | 14.3% | fair +598

0-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +988

1-0 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1006

Erling Haaland Norway scorer | model 36.4% | fair +175

Alexander Sorloth Norway scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371

Sadio Mane Senegal scorer | model 27.3% | fair +267

Nicolas Jackson Senegal scorer | model 19.9% | fair +403

Corner Projections

4.8 Norway projected corners

4.7 Senegal projected corners

Norway Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 52.0% | fair -109

Senegal Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 50.4% | fair -102

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1645 Away Elo: 1668 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 1.02 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -23 Raw W/D/L: 34.0/26.1/39.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Jordan vs Algeria

Mon, Jun 22 - 8:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Algeria

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.98Jordan projected goals

1.70Algeria projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Jordan

21.9%

Draw

28.2%

Algeria

49.9%

Polymarket

Jordan15.5%

Draw23.5%

Algeria61.5%

Pick edge-11.6%

Best valueJordan +6.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jor-alg-2026-06-22

Algeria 1.5 Spread | model 92.6% | fair -1250

Jordan -1.5 Spread | model 7.4% | fair +1244

Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 52.1% | fair -109

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +623

0-1 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832

0-2 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1005

Mousa Al-Taamari Jordan scorer | model 21.0% | fair +376

Yazan Al-Naimat Jordan scorer | model 20.2% | fair +394

Riyad Mahrez Algeria scorer | model 32.4% | fair +209

Amine Gouiri Algeria scorer | model 25.1% | fair +298

Corner Projections

3.9 Jordan projected corners

5.1 Algeria projected corners

Jordan Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.7% | fair -120

Algeria Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 57.0% | fair -133

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.8% | fair +145

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.2% | fair -145

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1480 Away Elo: 1600 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.90 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -120 Raw W/D/L: 21.7/24.0/54.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.4% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Portugal vs Uzbekistan

Tue, Jun 23 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Portugal

High | pick score 2-0

2.78Portugal projected goals

0.62Uzbekistan projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Portugal

75.9%

Draw

17.6%

Uzbekistan

6.6%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Uzbekistan 1.5 Spread | model 42.8% | fair +134

Portugal -1.5 Spread | model 57.2% | fair -133

Over 2.5 Total | model 62.4% | fair -167

Under 2.5 Total | model 37.6% | fair +166

Yes BTTS | model 44.9% | fair +122

2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +742

3-0 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +808

1-1 Exact score | 8.8% | fair +1041

Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal scorer | model 52.8% | fair -112

Goncalo Ramos Portugal scorer | model 39.4% | fair +154

Eldor Shomurodov Uzbekistan scorer | model 14.3% | fair +599

Oston Urunov Uzbekistan scorer | model 8.3% | fair +1108

Corner Projections

6.4 Portugal projected corners

3.5 Uzbekistan projected corners

Portugal Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 61.7% | fair -161

Uzbekistan Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 68.4% | fair -217

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 53.3% | fair -115

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.7% | fair +114

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1825 Away Elo: 1500 Home attack: 1.15 Away attack: 0.92 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +325 Raw W/D/L: 82.2/12.1/5.7% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.8% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

England vs Ghana

Tue, Jun 23 - 1:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

England

High | pick score 2-0

2.41England projected goals

0.71Ghana projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

England

68.2%

Draw

21.9%

Ghana

9.9%

Polymarket

England78.5%

Draw15.5%

Ghana7.5%

Pick edge-10.3%

Best valueDraw +6.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-eng-gha-2026-06-23

Ghana 1.5 Spread | model 52.7% | fair -111

England -1.5 Spread | model 47.3% | fair +111

Over 2.5 Total | model 56.5% | fair -130

Under 2.5 Total | model 43.5% | fair +130

Yes BTTS | model 47.8% | fair +109

2-0 Exact score | 11.6% | fair +760

1-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +815

1-0 Exact score | 9.8% | fair +919

Harry Kane England scorer | model 51.5% | fair -106

Bukayo Saka England scorer | model 32.0% | fair +212

Mohammed Kudus Ghana scorer | model 13.2% | fair +659

Inaki Williams Ghana scorer | model 11.3% | fair +784

Corner Projections

6.0 England projected corners

3.6 Ghana projected corners

England Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 55.4% | fair -123

Ghana Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 69.7% | fair -233

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.0% | fair +104

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 51.0% | fair -104

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1845 Away Elo: 1585 Home attack: 1.16 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.14 Away defense: 0.95 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +260 Raw W/D/L: 75.1/15.9/9.0% Draw multiplier: 1.15x Low-score draw: 1.23x Favorite compression: 10.2% Close underdog boost: 1.11x

Panama vs Croatia

Tue, Jun 23 - 4:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Croatia

High | pick score 0-2

0.76Panama projected goals

2.18Croatia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Panama

12.3%

Draw

24.3%

Croatia

63.3%

Polymarket

Panama13.5%

Draw23.5%

Croatia63.5%

Pick edge-0.2%

Best valueDraw +0.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-pan-hrv-2026-06-23

Croatia 1.5 Spread | model 96.8% | fair -3333

Panama -1.5 Spread | model 3.2% | fair +2990

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.8% | fair -112

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.2% | fair +112

Yes BTTS | model 48.7% | fair +105

1-1 Exact score | 12.1% | fair +728

0-2 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +783

0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +850

Jose Fajardo Panama scorer | model 13.4% | fair +646

Jose Luis Rodriguez Panama scorer | model 9.4% | fair +967

Andrej Kramaric Croatia scorer | model 35.4% | fair +183

Ivan Perisic Croatia scorer | model 24.7% | fair +305

Corner Projections

3.5 Panama projected corners

5.7 Croatia projected corners

Panama Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.2% | fair -204

Croatia Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 50.2% | fair -101

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.2% | fair +132

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.8% | fair -132

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1515 Away Elo: 1745 Home attack: 0.92 Away attack: 1.07 Home defense: 0.92 Away defense: 1.06 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -230 Raw W/D/L: 11.6/18.4/70.1% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.21x Favorite compression: 9.0% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

Colombia vs DR Congo

Tue, Jun 23 - 7:00 PM PDT | Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Model Pick

Colombia

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.99Colombia projected goals

0.87DR Congo projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Colombia

57.7%

Draw

26.1%

DR Congo

16.2%

Polymarket

Colombia64.5%

Draw22.5%

DR Congo13.5%

Pick edge-6.8%

Best valueDraw +3.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-col-cdr-2026-06-23

DR Congo 1.5 Spread | model 64.8% | fair -185

Colombia -1.5 Spread | model 35.2% | fair +184

Over 2.5 Total | model 51.3% | fair -105

Under 2.5 Total | model 48.7% | fair +105

Yes BTTS | model 51.3% | fair -105

1-1 Exact score | 12.9% | fair +673

1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +855

2-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +872

Luis Diaz Colombia scorer | model 34.1% | fair +193

Jhon Duran Colombia scorer | model 27.3% | fair +267

Yoane Wissa DR Congo scorer | model 16.6% | fair +501

Cedric Bakambu DR Congo scorer | model 14.4% | fair +593

Corner Projections

5.6 Colombia projected corners

3.9 DR Congo projected corners

Colombia Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 49.0% | fair +104

DR Congo Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.9% | fair -116

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1705 Away Elo: 1520 Home attack: 1.05 Away attack: 0.93 Home defense: 1.01 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +185 Raw W/D/L: 63.6/20.9/15.6% Draw multiplier: 1.11x Low-score draw: 1.19x Favorite compression: 7.6% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Results

Match	Final	Model Pick	Model Prob	Model Grade	Polymarket Edge Pick	Edge Pick Prob	Edge Detail	Edge Grade	Actual	Actual Prob	Projected Goals	Completed	Source
Uzbekistan vs Colombia	1-3	Colombia	60.1%	Win	Draw	25.4%	market 19.5% \| edge +5.9%	Loss	Colombia	60.1%	0.83-2.08	2026-06-17 7:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Ghana vs Panama	1-0	Ghana	43.5%	Win	Ghana	43.5%	market 41.5% \| edge +2.0%	Win	Ghana	43.5%	1.52-1.10	2026-06-17 4:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
England vs Croatia	4-2	England	48.2%	Win	Croatia	23.4%	market 17.5% \| edge +5.9%	Loss	England	48.2%	1.65-1.02	2026-06-17 1:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Portugal vs DR Congo	1-1	Portugal	73.5%	Loss	Draw	18.9%	market 17.5% \| edge +1.4%	Win	Draw	18.9%	2.66-0.65	2026-06-17 10:01 AM PDT	odds_api_scores
Austria vs Jordan	3-1								Austria			2026-06-16 9:02 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Argentina vs Algeria	3-0								Argentina			2026-06-16 6:02 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Iraq vs Norway	1-4								Norway			2026-06-16 3:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
France vs Senegal	3-1								France			2026-06-16 12:02 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
IR Iran vs New Zealand	2-2								Draw			2026-06-15 6:03 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay	1-1								Draw			2026-06-15 3:03 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Belgium vs Egypt	1-1								Draw			2026-06-15 12:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Spain vs Cape Verde	0-0								Draw			2026-06-15 9:01 AM PDT	odds_api_scores
Czechia vs South Africa	Pending	Czechia	46.4%		South Africa	24.8%	market 20.5% \| edge +4.3%		Pending		1.59-1.04		pending
Canada vs Qatar	Pending	Canada	47.4%		Qatar	24.1%	market 8.5% \| edge +15.6%		Pending		1.63-1.03		pending
Mexico vs South Korea	Pending	Mexico	42.9%						Pending		1.51-1.12		pending
Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	Pending	Switzerland	53.3%						Pending		1.81-0.92		pending
Brazil vs Haiti	Pending	Brazil	81.6%		Draw	13.9%	market 8.0% \| edge +5.9%		Pending		3.10-0.55		pending
Scotland vs Morocco	Pending	Morocco	44.6%		Scotland	26.5%	market 17.5% \| edge +9.0%		Pending		1.08-1.54		pending
Turkey vs Paraguay	Pending	Turkey	38.3%						Pending		1.40-1.22		pending
United States vs Australia	Pending	United States	48.8%		Draw	28.3%	market 21.5% \| edge +6.8%		Pending		1.67-1.01		pending
Netherlands vs Sweden	Pending	Netherlands	56.1%		Draw	26.7%	market 24.5% \| edge +2.2%		Pending		1.92-0.88		pending
Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire	Pending	Germany	59.2%						Pending		2.05-0.85		pending
Ecuador vs Curacao	Pending	Ecuador	55.5%						Pending		1.88-0.87		pending
Tunisia vs Japan	Pending	Japan	50.7%		Tunisia	21.2%	market 12.5% \| edge +8.7%		Pending		0.96-1.72		pending
Spain vs Saudi Arabia	Pending	Spain	74.3%		Draw	18.5%	market 8.5% \| edge +10.0%		Pending		2.69-0.63		pending
Belgium vs IR Iran	Pending	Belgium	53.0%		IR Iran	19.6%	market 11.5% \| edge +8.1%		Pending		1.81-0.94		pending
Uruguay vs Cape Verde	Pending	Uruguay	64.3%						Pending		2.22-0.74		pending
New Zealand vs Egypt	Pending	Egypt	50.5%		New Zealand	21.4%	market 16.5% \| edge +4.9%		Pending		0.96-1.72		pending
Argentina vs Austria	Pending	Argentina	65.0%		Argentina	65.0%	market 61.5% \| edge +3.5%		Pending		2.28-0.75		pending
France vs Iraq	Pending	France	84.3%		Draw	12.1%	market 9.5% \| edge +2.6%		Pending		3.28-0.52		pending
Norway vs Senegal	Pending	Senegal	37.1%		Senegal	37.1%	market 31.5% \| edge +5.6%		Pending		1.26-1.38		pending
Jordan vs Algeria	Pending	Algeria	49.9%		Jordan	21.9%	market 15.5% \| edge +6.4%		Pending		0.98-1.70		pending
Portugal vs Uzbekistan	Pending	Portugal	75.9%						Pending		2.78-0.62		pending
England vs Ghana	Pending	England	68.2%		Draw	21.9%	market 15.5% \| edge +6.4%		Pending		2.41-0.71		pending
Panama vs Croatia	Pending	Croatia	63.3%		Draw	24.3%	market 23.5% \| edge +0.8%		Pending		0.76-2.18		pending
Colombia vs DR Congo	Pending	Colombia	57.7%		Draw	26.1%	market 22.5% \| edge +3.6%		Pending		1.99-0.87		pending