World Cup Betting Model

90-minute match probabilities, projected goals, and Polymarket edge checks for upcoming 2026 World Cup fixtures. Times are shown in Pacific Time.

24Fixtures
18Markets Matched
+15.6%Best Value Edge
0Tracked Results

Projected Goals

Projected goals are expected goals: the average goals a team would score across many simulations from its attack rating, opponent defense, Elo strength, venue context, and host adjustment. They are not a literal final score.

Pick Scoreline

The displayed scoreline is constrained to the selected betting pick. The model may still know that a draw is a common exact score, but it will not show 1-1 beside a team-win recommendation.

Market Coverage

Polymarket prices appear when an active match market can be found. If the live lookup misses but a previous price was saved, the report shows it as cached; otherwise the match is marked clearly as missing.

Upset Calibration

Final probabilities include a soccer calibration layer that raises low-score draws, compresses heavy favorites, and gives close underdog wins a modest boost before picks and market edges are calculated.

Upcoming

Portugal vs DR Congo

Wed, Jun 17 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston
Model Pick
Portugal
High | pick score 2-0
2.66Portugal projected goals
0.65DR Congo projected goals
2-0most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Portugal
73.5%
Draw
18.9%
DR Congo
7.6%
Polymarket
Portugal75.5%
Draw17.5%
DR Congo7.5%
Pick edge-2.0%
Best valueDraw +1.4%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-prt-cdr-2026-06-17)))
DR Congo 1.5 Spread | model 46.0% | fair +118
Portugal -1.5 Spread | model 54.0% | fair -118
Over 2.5 Total | model 60.5% | fair -154
Under 2.5 Total | model 39.5% | fair +153
Yes BTTS | model 46.0% | fair +118
2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +744
3-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +851
1-1 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +957
Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal scorer | model 51.2% | fair -105
Goncalo Ramos Portugal scorer | model 38.0% | fair +163
Yoane Wissa DR Congo scorer | model 12.7% | fair +689
Cedric Bakambu DR Congo scorer | model 11.0% | fair +812

Corner Projections

6.4 Portugal projected corners
3.6 DR Congo projected corners
Portugal Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 61.2% | fair -159
DR Congo Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 49.2% | fair +103
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 54.3% | fair -119
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 45.7% | fair +119
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1825 Away Elo: 1520 Home attack: 1.15 Away attack: 0.93 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +305 Raw W/D/L: 80.1/13.2/6.7% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.3% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

England vs Croatia

Wed, Jun 17 - 1:00 PM PDT | AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Model Pick
England
Medium | pick score 1-0
1.65England projected goals
1.02Croatia projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
England
48.2%
Draw
28.4%
Croatia
23.4%
Polymarket
England56.5%
Draw25.5%
Croatia17.5%
Pick edge-8.3%
Best valueCroatia +5.9%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-eng-hrv-2026-06-17)))
Croatia 1.5 Spread | model 74.2% | fair -286
England -1.5 Spread | model 25.8% | fair +287
Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109
Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -110
Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110
1-1 Exact score | 13.9% | fair +618
1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +844
2-1 Exact score | 8.9% | fair +1022
Harry Kane England scorer | model 39.1% | fair +156
Bukayo Saka England scorer | model 23.3% | fair +330
Andrej Kramaric Croatia scorer | model 18.4% | fair +443
Ivan Perisic Croatia scorer | model 12.4% | fair +707

Corner Projections

5.0 England projected corners
4.2 Croatia projected corners
England Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 56.6% | fair -130
Croatia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.7% | fair -147
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.8% | fair +128
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.2% | fair -128
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1845 Away Elo: 1745 Home attack: 1.16 Away attack: 1.07 Home defense: 1.14 Away defense: 1.06 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +100 Raw W/D/L: 52.3/24.5/23.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.14x Favorite compression: 5.0% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Ghana vs Panama

Wed, Jun 17 - 4:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto
Model Pick
Ghana
Lean | pick score 1-0
1.52Ghana projected goals
1.10Panama projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Ghana
43.5%
Draw
29.0%
Panama
27.4%
Polymarket
Ghana41.5%
Draw29.5%
Panama28.5%
Pick edge+2.0%
Best valueGhana +2.0%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-gha-pan-2026-06-17)))
Panama 1.5 Spread | model 78.2% | fair -357
Ghana -1.5 Spread | model 21.8% | fair +358
Over 2.5 Total | model 46.8% | fair +114
Under 2.5 Total | model 53.2% | fair -114
Yes BTTS | model 52.8% | fair -112
1-1 Exact score | 14.2% | fair +604
1-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +870
2-1 Exact score | 8.6% | fair +1060
Mohammed Kudus Ghana scorer | model 26.2% | fair +282
Inaki Williams Ghana scorer | model 22.7% | fair +340
Jose Fajardo Panama scorer | model 18.9% | fair +429
Jose Luis Rodriguez Panama scorer | model 13.4% | fair +649

Corner Projections

4.9 Ghana projected corners
4.2 Panama projected corners
Ghana Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 54.5% | fair -119
Panama Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.8% | fair -149
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.3% | fair +136
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 57.7% | fair -137
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1585 Away Elo: 1515 Home attack: 0.97 Away attack: 0.92 Home defense: 0.95 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +70 Raw W/D/L: 46.8/25.6/27.6% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

Wed, Jun 17 - 7:00 PM PDT | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Model Pick
Colombia
High | pick score 0-2
0.83Uzbekistan projected goals
2.08Colombia projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Uzbekistan
14.6%
Draw
25.4%
Colombia
60.1%
Polymarket
Uzbekistan9.5%
Draw19.5%
Colombia71.5%
Pick edge-11.4%
Best valueDraw +5.9%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-uzb-col-2026-06-17)))
Colombia 1.5 Spread | model 95.8% | fair -2500
Uzbekistan -1.5 Spread | model 4.2% | fair +2310
Over 2.5 Total | model 52.3% | fair -110
Under 2.5 Total | model 47.7% | fair +110
Yes BTTS | model 50.7% | fair -103
1-1 Exact score | 12.6% | fair +695
0-2 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +840
0-1 Exact score | 10.4% | fair +864
Eldor Shomurodov Uzbekistan scorer | model 18.7% | fair +435
Oston Urunov Uzbekistan scorer | model 11.0% | fair +813
Luis Diaz Colombia scorer | model 35.4% | fair +183
Jhon Duran Colombia scorer | model 28.3% | fair +253

Corner Projections

3.7 Uzbekistan projected corners
5.7 Colombia projected corners
Uzbekistan Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 50.7% | fair -103
Colombia Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 50.4% | fair -102
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.5% | fair +115
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 53.5% | fair -115
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1500 Away Elo: 1705 Home attack: 0.92 Away attack: 1.05 Home defense: 0.91 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -205 Raw W/D/L: 13.9/19.8/66.3% Draw multiplier: 1.12x Low-score draw: 1.20x Favorite compression: 8.2% Close underdog boost: 1.09x

Czechia vs South Africa

Thu, Jun 18 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Model Pick
Czechia
Lean | pick score 1-0
1.59Czechia projected goals
1.04South Africa projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Czechia
46.4%
Draw
28.8%
South Africa
24.8%
Polymarket
Czechia54.5%
Draw25.5%
South Africa20.5%
Pick edge-8.1%
Best valueSouth Africa +4.3%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18)))
South Africa 1.5 Spread | model 75.8% | fair -312
Czechia -1.5 Spread | model 24.2% | fair +314
Over 2.5 Total | model 46.9% | fair +113
Under 2.5 Total | model 53.1% | fair -114
Yes BTTS | model 52.3% | fair -110
1-1 Exact score | 14.1% | fair +611
1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +839
2-1 Exact score | 8.8% | fair +1035
Patrik Schick Czechia scorer | model 33.9% | fair +195
Adam Hlozek Czechia scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371
Percy Tau South Africa scorer | model 18.8% | fair +432
Evidence Makgopa South Africa scorer | model 15.3% | fair +552

Corner Projections

5.2 Czechia projected corners
4.1 South Africa projected corners
Czechia Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 60.2% | fair -152
South Africa Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.1% | fair -145
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.2% | fair +117
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 53.8% | fair -116
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1638 Away Elo: 1545 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.94 Home defense: 0.99 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +93 Raw W/D/L: 50.1/25.1/24.8% Draw multiplier: 1.07x Low-score draw: 1.14x Favorite compression: 4.5% Close underdog boost: 1.05x

Canada vs Qatar

Thu, Jun 18 - 3:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver
Model Pick
Canada
Medium | pick score 1-0
1.63Canada projected goals
1.03Qatar projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Canada
47.4%
Draw
28.5%
Qatar
24.1%
Polymarket
Canada75.5%
Draw16.5%
Qatar8.5%
Pick edge-28.1%
Best valueQatar +15.6%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18)))
Qatar 1.5 Spread | model 74.9% | fair -294
Canada -1.5 Spread | model 25.1% | fair +298
Over 2.5 Total | model 47.7% | fair +109
Under 2.5 Total | model 52.3% | fair -110
Yes BTTS | model 52.7% | fair -111
1-1 Exact score | 14.0% | fair +616
1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +851
2-1 Exact score | 8.9% | fair +1026
Jonathan David Canada scorer | model 35.7% | fair +180
Alphonso Davies Canada scorer | model 19.1% | fair +423
Akram Afif Qatar scorer | model 22.0% | fair +355
Almoez Ali Qatar scorer | model 20.4% | fair +391

Corner Projections

5.3 Canada projected corners
4.2 Qatar projected corners
Canada Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.3% | fair -159
Qatar Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 60.4% | fair -152
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 48.0% | fair +108
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.0% | fair -109
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1635 Away Elo: 1565 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 0.97 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +115 Raw W/D/L: 51.3/24.7/24.0% Draw multiplier: 1.07x Low-score draw: 1.14x Favorite compression: 4.8% Close underdog boost: 1.05x

Mexico vs South Korea

Thu, Jun 18 - 6:00 PM PDT | Estadio Akron, Zapopan
Model Pick
Mexico
Lean | pick score 1-0
1.51Mexico projected goals
1.12South Korea projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Mexico
42.9%
Draw
29.1%
South Korea
28.0%
Polymarket
StatusNo active match market found
South Korea 1.5 Spread | model 78.6% | fair -370
Mexico -1.5 Spread | model 21.4% | fair +367
Over 2.5 Total | model 47.0% | fair +113
Under 2.5 Total | model 53.0% | fair -112
Yes BTTS | model 53.1% | fair -114
1-1 Exact score | 14.2% | fair +604
1-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +884
2-1 Exact score | 8.6% | fair +1065
Santiago Gimenez Mexico scorer | model 29.3% | fair +241
Hirving Lozano Mexico scorer | model 21.4% | fair +367
Son Heung-min South Korea scorer | model 26.9% | fair +271
Hwang Hee-chan South Korea scorer | model 17.3% | fair +477

Corner Projections

5.1 Mexico projected corners
4.5 South Korea projected corners
Mexico Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 57.0% | fair -133
South Korea Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 66.0% | fair -192
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 48.8% | fair +105
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 51.2% | fair -105
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1665 Away Elo: 1630 Home attack: 1.01 Away attack: 1.00 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +80 Raw W/D/L: 46.1/25.7/28.2% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Thu, Jun 18 - 7:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Model Pick
Switzerland
Medium | pick score 1-0
1.81Switzerland projected goals
0.92Bosnia and Herzegovina projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Switzerland
53.3%
Draw
27.5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
19.2%
Polymarket
StatusNo active match market found
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.5 Spread | model 69.4% | fair -227
Switzerland -1.5 Spread | model 30.6% | fair +227
Over 2.5 Total | model 48.7% | fair +106
Under 2.5 Total | model 51.3% | fair -105
Yes BTTS | model 51.3% | fair -105
1-1 Exact score | 13.5% | fair +638
1-0 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +819
2-0 Exact score | 9.7% | fair +926
Breel Embolo Switzerland scorer | model 30.4% | fair +229
Ruben Vargas Switzerland scorer | model 21.0% | fair +377
Edin Dzeko Bosnia and Herzegovina scorer | model 20.5% | fair +389
Ermedin Demirovic Bosnia and Herzegovina scorer | model 16.7% | fair +497

Corner Projections

5.1 Switzerland projected corners
3.8 Bosnia and Herzegovina projected corners
Switzerland Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139
Bosnia and Herzegovina Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.6% | fair -115
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.8% | fair +145
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.2% | fair -145
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1715 Away Elo: 1568 Home attack: 1.04 Away attack: 0.96 Home defense: 1.05 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +147 Raw W/D/L: 58.4/22.8/18.7% Draw multiplier: 1.09x Low-score draw: 1.16x Favorite compression: 6.4% Close underdog boost: 1.07x

Brazil vs Haiti

Fri, Jun 19 - 12:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Model Pick
Brazil
High | pick score 3-0
3.10Brazil projected goals
0.55Haiti projected goals
3-0most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Brazil
81.6%
Draw
13.9%
Haiti
4.5%
Polymarket
Brazil88.5%
Draw7.8%
Haiti4.2%
Pick edge-6.9%
Best valueDraw +6.1%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19)))
Haiti 1.5 Spread | model 34.8% | fair +187
Brazil -1.5 Spread | model 65.2% | fair -189
Over 2.5 Total | model 67.5% | fair -208
Under 2.5 Total | model 32.5% | fair +208
Yes BTTS | model 42.1% | fair +138
3-0 Exact score | 12.1% | fair +729
2-0 Exact score | 11.7% | fair +757
4-0 Exact score | 9.4% | fair +969
Vinicius Junior Brazil scorer | model 49.5% | fair +102
Rodrygo Brazil scorer | model 42.8% | fair +134
Duckens Nazon Haiti scorer | model 12.4% | fair +706
Frantzdy Pierrot Haiti scorer | model 10.0% | fair +905

Corner Projections

6.8 Brazil projected corners
3.4 Haiti projected corners
Brazil Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 67.4% | fair -208
Haiti Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 66.9% | fair -200
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 57.3% | fair -133
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.7% | fair +134
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1835 Away Elo: 1468 Home attack: 1.17 Away attack: 0.89 Home defense: 1.12 Away defense: 0.89 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +367 Raw W/D/L: 86.8/9.3/3.9% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 12.0% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Scotland vs Morocco

Fri, Jun 19 - 3:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough
Model Pick
Morocco
Lean | pick score 0-1
1.08Scotland projected goals
1.54Morocco projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Scotland
26.5%
Draw
28.9%
Morocco
44.6%
Polymarket
Scotland17.5%
Draw26.5%
Morocco56.5%
Pick edge-11.9%
Best valueScotland +9.0%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-sco-mar-2026-06-19)))
Morocco 1.5 Spread | model 90.2% | fair -909
Scotland -1.5 Spread | model 9.8% | fair +918
Over 2.5 Total | model 46.6% | fair +114
Under 2.5 Total | model 53.4% | fair -115
Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110
1-1 Exact score | 14.2% | fair +607
0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +852
1-2 Exact score | 8.7% | fair +1050
Scott McTominay Scotland scorer | model 17.6% | fair +468
Che Adams Scotland scorer | model 15.8% | fair +532
Youssef En-Nesyri Morocco scorer | model 28.7% | fair +249
Achraf Hakimi Morocco scorer | model 14.2% | fair +602

Corner Projections

4.3 Scotland projected corners
5.0 Morocco projected corners
Scotland Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 61.5% | fair -159
Morocco Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 55.1% | fair -123
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.0% | fair +127
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.0% | fair -127
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1615 Away Elo: 1695 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 1.03 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.03 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -80 Raw W/D/L: 26.6/25.5/47.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Turkey vs Paraguay

Fri, Jun 19 - 7:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Model Pick
Turkey
Lean | pick score 1-0
1.40Turkey projected goals
1.22Paraguay projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Turkey
38.3%
Draw
29.4%
Paraguay
32.3%
Polymarket
StatusNo active match market found
Paraguay 1.5 Spread | model 82.0% | fair -455
Turkey -1.5 Spread | model 18.0% | fair +456
Over 2.5 Total | model 46.9% | fair +113
Under 2.5 Total | model 53.1% | fair -114
Yes BTTS | model 53.7% | fair -116
1-1 Exact score | 14.4% | fair +596
1-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +950
0-1 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1015
Kenan Yildiz Turkey scorer | model 22.3% | fair +349
Kerem Akturkoglu Turkey scorer | model 20.1% | fair +398
Miguel Almiron Paraguay scorer | model 19.7% | fair +408
Julio Enciso Paraguay scorer | model 18.7% | fair +435

Corner Projections

5.1 Turkey projected corners
4.6 Paraguay projected corners
Turkey Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139
Paraguay Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 66.9% | fair -204
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.3% | fair -101
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.7% | fair +101
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1658 Away Elo: 1628 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +30 Raw W/D/L: 41.2/26.2/32.7% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

United States vs Australia

Fri, Jun 19 - 10:00 PM PDT | Lumen Field, Seattle
Model Pick
United States
Medium | pick score 1-0
1.67United States projected goals
1.01Australia projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
United States
48.8%
Draw
28.3%
Australia
22.9%
Polymarket
United States61.5%
Draw21.5%
Australia18.5%
Pick edge-12.7%
Best valueDraw +6.8%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-usa-aus-2026-06-19)))
Australia 1.5 Spread | model 73.6% | fair -278
United States -1.5 Spread | model 26.4% | fair +279
Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108
Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109
Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110
1-1 Exact score | 13.9% | fair +620
1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +844
2-1 Exact score | 8.9% | fair +1018
Christian Pulisic United States scorer | model 30.8% | fair +225
Folarin Balogun United States scorer | model 28.5% | fair +251
Mitchell Duke Australia scorer | model 18.3% | fair +448
Jackson Irvine Australia scorer | model 12.3% | fair +714

Corner Projections

5.3 United States projected corners
4.3 Australia projected corners
United States Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.2% | fair -159
Australia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 62.2% | fair -164
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.2% | fair +103
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.8% | fair -103
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1685 Away Elo: 1605 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +125 Raw W/D/L: 53.0/24.3/22.8% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.1% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Netherlands vs Sweden

Sat, Jun 20 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston
Model Pick
Netherlands
Medium | pick score 1-0
1.92Netherlands projected goals
0.88Sweden projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Netherlands
56.1%
Draw
26.7%
Sweden
17.2%
Polymarket
Netherlands57.5%
Draw24.5%
Sweden19.5%
Pick edge-1.4%
Best valueDraw +2.2%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20)))
Sweden 1.5 Spread | model 66.5% | fair -200
Netherlands -1.5 Spread | model 33.5% | fair +198
Over 2.5 Total | model 50.4% | fair -101
Under 2.5 Total | model 49.6% | fair +102
Yes BTTS | model 51.4% | fair -105
1-1 Exact score | 13.2% | fair +660
1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +842
2-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +890
Cody Gakpo Netherlands scorer | model 34.5% | fair +190
Memphis Depay Netherlands scorer | model 31.9% | fair +213
Alexander Isak Sweden scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371
Viktor Gyokeres Sweden scorer | model 19.8% | fair +404

Corner Projections

5.5 Netherlands projected corners
4.2 Sweden projected corners
Netherlands Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.6% | fair -175
Sweden Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.8% | fair -149
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.4% | fair +103
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.6% | fair -103
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1815 Away Elo: 1650 Home attack: 1.13 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.99 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +165 Raw W/D/L: 61.7/21.6/16.7% Draw multiplier: 1.11x Low-score draw: 1.18x Favorite compression: 7.1% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire

Sat, Jun 20 - 12:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto
Model Pick
Germany
High | pick score 2-0
2.05Germany projected goals
0.85Cote d'Ivoire projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Germany
59.2%
Draw
25.6%
Cote d'Ivoire
15.2%
Polymarket
StatusNo active match market found
Cote d'Ivoire 1.5 Spread | model 63.1% | fair -172
Germany -1.5 Spread | model 36.9% | fair +171
Over 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109
Under 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109
Yes BTTS | model 51.1% | fair -104
1-1 Exact score | 12.7% | fair +687
2-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +855
1-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +867
Kai Havertz Germany scorer | model 35.0% | fair +186
Jamal Musiala Germany scorer | model 28.0% | fair +258
Sebastien Haller Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 17.0% | fair +489
Simon Adingra Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 11.9% | fair +739

Corner Projections

6.0 Germany projected corners
4.1 Cote d'Ivoire projected corners
Germany Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 55.8% | fair -127
Cote d'Ivoire Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 58.8% | fair -143
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.9% | fair -127
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.1% | fair +127
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1785 Away Elo: 1595 Home attack: 1.12 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 1.08 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +190 Raw W/D/L: 65.3/20.2/14.5% Draw multiplier: 1.12x Low-score draw: 1.19x Favorite compression: 8.0% Close underdog boost: 1.09x

Ecuador vs Curacao

Sat, Jun 20 - 4:00 PM PDT | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
Model Pick
Ecuador
Medium | pick score 1-0
1.88Ecuador projected goals
0.87Curacao projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Ecuador
55.5%
Draw
27.0%
Curacao
17.4%
Polymarket
StatusNo active match market found
Curacao 1.5 Spread | model 67.3% | fair -204
Ecuador -1.5 Spread | model 32.7% | fair +206
Over 2.5 Total | model 49.1% | fair +104
Under 2.5 Total | model 50.9% | fair -104
Yes BTTS | model 50.5% | fair -102
1-1 Exact score | 13.3% | fair +651
1-0 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +810
2-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +880
Enner Valencia Ecuador scorer | model 37.5% | fair +167
Kendry Paez Ecuador scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361
Leandro Bacuna Curacao scorer | model 13.8% | fair +626
Rangelo Janga Curacao scorer | model 12.3% | fair +716

Corner Projections

5.5 Ecuador projected corners
3.7 Curacao projected corners
Ecuador Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.8% | fair -175
Curacao Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 51.3% | fair -105
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.0% | fair +127
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.0% | fair -127
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1652 Away Elo: 1485 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.90 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +167 Raw W/D/L: 61.1/22.0/16.9% Draw multiplier: 1.10x Low-score draw: 1.17x Favorite compression: 7.0% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Tunisia vs Japan

Sat, Jun 20 - 9:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
Model Pick
Japan
Medium | pick score 0-1
0.96Tunisia projected goals
1.72Japan projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Tunisia
21.2%
Draw
28.1%
Japan
50.7%
Polymarket
Tunisia12.5%
Draw23.5%
Japan64.5%
Pick edge-13.8%
Best valueTunisia +8.7%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tun-jpn-2026-06-21)))
Japan 1.5 Spread | model 93.0% | fair -1250
Tunisia -1.5 Spread | model 7.0% | fair +1324
Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109
Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109
Yes BTTS | model 51.6% | fair -106
1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +625
0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +820
0-2 Exact score | 9.3% | fair +978
Youssef Msakni Tunisia scorer | model 15.0% | fair +565
Seifeddine Jaziri Tunisia scorer | model 14.2% | fair +603
Ayase Ueda Japan scorer | model 29.1% | fair +243
Takumi Minamino Japan scorer | model 22.8% | fair +339

Corner Projections

3.9 Tunisia projected corners
5.2 Japan projected corners
Tunisia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.8% | fair -116
Japan Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.0% | fair +138
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1560 Away Elo: 1690 Home attack: 0.94 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 0.96 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -130 Raw W/D/L: 20.9/23.8/55.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.7% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Sun, Jun 21 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Model Pick
Spain
High | pick score 2-0
2.69Spain projected goals
0.63Saudi Arabia projected goals
2-0most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Spain
74.3%
Draw
18.5%
Saudi Arabia
7.2%
Polymarket
Spain87.5%
Draw8.5%
Saudi Arabia4.0%
Pick edge-13.2%
Best valueDraw +10.0%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21)))
Saudi Arabia 1.5 Spread | model 44.9% | fair +123
Spain -1.5 Spread | model 55.1% | fair -122
Over 2.5 Total | model 60.9% | fair -156
Under 2.5 Total | model 39.1% | fair +156
Yes BTTS | model 45.4% | fair +120
2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +737
3-0 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832
1-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +983
Alvaro Morata Spain scorer | model 44.7% | fair +124
Lamine Yamal Spain scorer | model 33.2% | fair +201
Salem Al-Dawsari Saudi Arabia scorer | model 11.3% | fair +785
Firas Al-Buraikan Saudi Arabia scorer | model 10.2% | fair +884

Corner Projections

6.6 Spain projected corners
3.5 Saudi Arabia projected corners
Spain Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 65.0% | fair -185
Saudi Arabia Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.6% | fair -208
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.6% | fair -125
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.4% | fair +125
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1865 Away Elo: 1555 Home attack: 1.18 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 1.15 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +310 Raw W/D/L: 80.8/12.9/6.3% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.5% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Belgium vs IR Iran

Sun, Jun 21 - 12:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Model Pick
Belgium
Medium | pick score 1-0
1.81Belgium projected goals
0.94IR Iran projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Belgium
53.0%
Draw
27.5%
IR Iran
19.6%
Polymarket
Belgium68.5%
Draw20.5%
IR Iran11.5%
Pick edge-15.5%
Best valueIR Iran +8.1%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bel-irn-2026-06-21)))
IR Iran 1.5 Spread | model 69.7% | fair -227
Belgium -1.5 Spread | model 30.3% | fair +230
Over 2.5 Total | model 49.3% | fair +103
Under 2.5 Total | model 50.7% | fair -103
Yes BTTS | model 52.0% | fair -109
1-1 Exact score | 13.5% | fair +640
1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +840
2-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +947
Romelu Lukaku Belgium scorer | model 39.8% | fair +151
Kevin De Bruyne Belgium scorer | model 19.6% | fair +411
Mehdi Taremi IR Iran scorer | model 22.4% | fair +347
Sardar Azmoun IR Iran scorer | model 17.9% | fair +459

Corner Projections

5.3 Belgium projected corners
3.8 IR Iran projected corners
Belgium Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.3% | fair -159
IR Iran Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.6% | fair -115
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.4% | fair +130
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.6% | fair -130
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1765 Away Elo: 1625 Home attack: 1.10 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 1.07 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +140 Raw W/D/L: 58.0/22.8/19.2% Draw multiplier: 1.09x Low-score draw: 1.16x Favorite compression: 6.3% Close underdog boost: 1.07x

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Sun, Jun 21 - 3:00 PM PDT | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens
Model Pick
Uruguay
High | pick score 2-0
2.22Uruguay projected goals
0.74Cape Verde projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Uruguay
64.3%
Draw
24.0%
Cape Verde
11.8%
Polymarket
StatusNo active match market found
Cape Verde 1.5 Spread | model 57.6% | fair -135
Uruguay -1.5 Spread | model 42.4% | fair +136
Over 2.5 Total | model 53.3% | fair -114
Under 2.5 Total | model 46.7% | fair +114
Yes BTTS | model 48.4% | fair +107
1-1 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +740
2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +774
1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +856
Darwin Nunez Uruguay scorer | model 45.1% | fair +122
Federico Valverde Uruguay scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361
Bebe Cape Verde scorer | model 13.2% | fair +660
Ryan Mendes Cape Verde scorer | model 11.2% | fair +792

Corner Projections

5.5 Uruguay projected corners
3.4 Cape Verde projected corners
Uruguay Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 64.8% | fair -185
Cape Verde Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 66.3% | fair -196
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.6% | fair +147
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1740 Away Elo: 1505 Home attack: 1.08 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.06 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +235 Raw W/D/L: 71.1/17.9/11.0% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.3% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

New Zealand vs Egypt

Sun, Jun 21 - 6:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver
Model Pick
Egypt
Medium | pick score 0-1
0.96New Zealand projected goals
1.72Egypt projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
New Zealand
21.4%
Draw
28.1%
Egypt
50.5%
Polymarket
New Zealand16.5%
Draw23.5%
Egypt59.5%
Pick edge-9.0%
Best valueNew Zealand +4.9%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nzl-egy-2026-06-21)))
Egypt 1.5 Spread | model 92.9% | fair -1250
New Zealand -1.5 Spread | model 7.1% | fair +1303
Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109
Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109
Yes BTTS | model 51.7% | fair -108
1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +624
0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +822
0-2 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +984
Chris Wood New Zealand scorer | model 25.8% | fair +287
Matthew Garbett New Zealand scorer | model 10.9% | fair +815
Mohamed Salah Egypt scorer | model 41.2% | fair +142
Trezeguet Egypt scorer | model 24.0% | fair +317

Corner Projections

3.9 New Zealand projected corners
5.3 Egypt projected corners
New Zealand Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.9% | fair -122
Egypt Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 60.3% | fair -152
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.5% | fair +130
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.5% | fair -130
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1495 Away Elo: 1620 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 0.91 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -125 Raw W/D/L: 21.1/23.9/55.0% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.6% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Argentina vs Austria

Mon, Jun 22 - 10:00 AM PDT | AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Model Pick
Argentina
High | pick score 2-0
2.28Argentina projected goals
0.75Austria projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Argentina
65.0%
Draw
23.5%
Austria
11.5%
Polymarket
Argentina62.5%
Draw23.5%
Austria15.5%
Pick edge+2.5%
Best valueArgentina +2.5%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22)))
Austria 1.5 Spread | model 56.5% | fair -130
Argentina -1.5 Spread | model 43.5% | fair +130
Over 2.5 Total | model 54.7% | fair -120
Under 2.5 Total | model 45.3% | fair +121
Yes BTTS | model 49.1% | fair +104
1-1 Exact score | 11.7% | fair +755
2-0 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +786
1-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +894
Lautaro Martinez Argentina scorer | model 43.4% | fair +130
Lionel Messi Argentina scorer | model 39.4% | fair +154
Marko Arnautovic Austria scorer | model 14.6% | fair +586
Christoph Baumgartner Austria scorer | model 12.0% | fair +735

Corner Projections

5.9 Argentina projected corners
4.0 Austria projected corners
Argentina Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 53.5% | fair -115
Austria Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 56.2% | fair -128
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -110
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +110
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1905 Away Elo: 1678 Home attack: 1.22 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.18 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +227 Raw W/D/L: 71.9/17.4/10.7% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.5% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

France vs Iraq

Mon, Jun 22 - 2:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Model Pick
France
High | pick score 3-0
3.28France projected goals
0.52Iraq projected goals
3-0most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
France
84.3%
Draw
12.1%
Iraq
3.7%
Polymarket
France88.5%
Draw9.5%
Iraq3.2%
Pick edge-4.2%
Best valueDraw +2.6%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22)))
Iraq 1.5 Spread | model 30.8% | fair +224
France -1.5 Spread | model 69.2% | fair -222
Over 2.5 Total | model 70.1% | fair -233
Under 2.5 Total | model 29.9% | fair +235
Yes BTTS | model 40.3% | fair +148
3-0 Exact score | 12.5% | fair +702
2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +775
4-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +879
Kylian Mbappe France scorer | model 63.8% | fair -175
Antoine Griezmann France scorer | model 36.8% | fair +172
Aymen Hussein Iraq scorer | model 13.0% | fair +667
Zidane Iqbal Iraq scorer | model 6.0% | fair +1562

Corner Projections

6.5 France projected corners
3.4 Iraq projected corners
France Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 62.9% | fair -169
Iraq Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 65.6% | fair -189
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1895 Away Elo: 1502 Home attack: 1.21 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.17 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +393 Raw W/D/L: 88.9/8.0/3.1% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 12.0% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Norway vs Senegal

Mon, Jun 22 - 5:00 PM PDT | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Model Pick
Senegal
Lean | pick score 0-1
1.26Norway projected goals
1.38Senegal projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Norway
33.6%
Draw
29.3%
Senegal
37.1%
Polymarket
Norway41.5%
Draw27.5%
Senegal31.5%
Pick edge+5.6%
Best valueSenegal +5.6%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-sen-2026-06-22)))
Senegal 1.5 Spread | model 85.8% | fair -588
Norway -1.5 Spread | model 14.2% | fair +605
Over 2.5 Total | model 47.4% | fair +111
Under 2.5 Total | model 52.6% | fair -111
Yes BTTS | model 54.2% | fair -119
1-1 Exact score | 14.3% | fair +598
0-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +988
1-0 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1006
Erling Haaland Norway scorer | model 36.4% | fair +175
Alexander Sorloth Norway scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371
Sadio Mane Senegal scorer | model 27.3% | fair +267
Nicolas Jackson Senegal scorer | model 19.9% | fair +403

Corner Projections

4.8 Norway projected corners
4.7 Senegal projected corners
Norway Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 52.0% | fair -109
Senegal Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 50.4% | fair -102
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1645 Away Elo: 1668 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 1.02 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -23 Raw W/D/L: 34.0/26.1/39.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Jordan vs Algeria

Mon, Jun 22 - 8:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara
Model Pick
Algeria
Medium | pick score 0-1
0.98Jordan projected goals
1.70Algeria projected goals
1-1most common exact score
The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.
Jordan
21.9%
Draw
28.2%
Algeria
49.9%
Polymarket
Jordan14.5%
Draw23.5%
Algeria61.5%
Pick edge-11.6%
Best valueJordan +7.4%
Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (Cached Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jor-alg-2026-06-22)))
Algeria 1.5 Spread | model 92.6% | fair -1250
Jordan -1.5 Spread | model 7.4% | fair +1244
Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108
Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109
Yes BTTS | model 52.1% | fair -109
1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +623
0-1 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832
0-2 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1005
Mousa Al-Taamari Jordan scorer | model 21.0% | fair +376
Yazan Al-Naimat Jordan scorer | model 20.2% | fair +394
Riyad Mahrez Algeria scorer | model 32.4% | fair +209
Amine Gouiri Algeria scorer | model 25.1% | fair +298

Corner Projections

3.9 Jordan projected corners
5.1 Algeria projected corners
Jordan Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.7% | fair -120
Algeria Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 57.0% | fair -133
Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.8% | fair +145
Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.2% | fair -145
Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.
Home Elo: 1480 Away Elo: 1600 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.90 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -120 Raw W/D/L: 21.7/24.0/54.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.4% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Results

No tracked results yet
Add final scores to data/results.csv or connect the Odds API scores endpoint to populate this section.