World Cup Betting Model

Projected Goals

Projected goals are expected goals: the average goals a team would score across many simulations from its attack rating, opponent defense, Elo strength, venue context, and host adjustment. They are not a literal final score.

Pick Scoreline

The displayed scoreline is constrained to the selected betting pick. The model may still know that a draw is a common exact score, but it will not show 1-1 beside a team-win recommendation.

Market Coverage

Polymarket prices appear only when an active match market can be found. Missing markets are marked clearly, and they may populate later as Polymarket lists more games.

Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Fri, Jun 12 - 12:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Canada

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.62Canada projected goals

1.05Bosnia and Herzegovina projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Canada

50.7%

Draw

24.7%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

24.5%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1635 Away Elo: 1568 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 0.96 Home defense: 0.97 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +112

United States vs Paraguay

Fri, Jun 12 - 7:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

United States

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.59United States projected goals

1.06Paraguay projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

United States

49.8%

Draw

25.0%

Paraguay

25.2%

Polymarket

United States47.5%

Draw29.5%

Paraguay24.5%

Pick edge+2.3%

Best valueUnited States +2.3%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-usa-par-2026-06-12

Home Elo: 1685 Away Elo: 1628 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +102

Qatar vs Switzerland

Sat, Jun 13 - 12:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Switzerland

High | pick score 0-1

0.90Qatar projected goals

1.82Switzerland projected goals

0-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Qatar

18.3%

Draw

22.7%

Switzerland

59.0%

Polymarket

Qatar5.8%

Draw13.5%

Switzerland80.5%

Pick edge-21.5%

Best valueQatar +12.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-qat-che-2026-06-13

Home Elo: 1565 Away Elo: 1715 Home attack: 0.95 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 0.94 Away defense: 1.05 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -150

Brazil vs Morocco

Sat, Jun 13 - 3:00 PM PDT | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Model Pick

Brazil

High | pick score 1-0

1.84Brazil projected goals

0.93Morocco projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Brazil

58.6%

Draw

22.6%

Morocco

18.8%

Polymarket

Brazil59.5%

Draw24.5%

Morocco16.5%

Pick edge-0.9%

Best valueMorocco +2.3%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bra-mar-2026-06-13

Home Elo: 1835 Away Elo: 1695 Home attack: 1.17 Away attack: 1.03 Home defense: 1.12 Away defense: 1.03 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +140

Haiti vs Scotland

Sat, Jun 13 - 6:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

Scotland

High | pick score 0-1

0.91Haiti projected goals

1.82Scotland projected goals

0-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Haiti

18.5%

Draw

22.7%

Scotland

58.8%

Polymarket

Haiti15.5%

Draw22.5%

Scotland61.5%

Pick edge-2.7%

Best valueHaiti +3.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-hai-sco-2026-06-13

Home Elo: 1468 Away Elo: 1615 Home attack: 0.89 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 0.89 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -147

Australia vs Turkey

Sat, Jun 13 - 9:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver

Model Pick

Turkey

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.16Australia projected goals

1.47Turkey projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Australia

29.9%

Draw

25.8%

Turkey

44.3%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1605 Away Elo: 1658 Home attack: 0.97 Away attack: 1.02 Home defense: 0.97 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -53

Germany vs Curacao

Sun, Jun 14 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Germany

High | pick score 2-0

2.63Germany projected goals

0.65Curacao projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Germany

79.6%

Draw

13.5%

Curacao

6.9%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1785 Away Elo: 1485 Home attack: 1.12 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 1.08 Away defense: 0.90 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +300

Netherlands vs Japan

Sun, Jun 14 - 1:00 PM PDT | AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Model Pick

Netherlands

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.76Netherlands projected goals

0.97Japan projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Netherlands

55.9%

Draw

23.4%

Japan

20.7%

Polymarket

Netherlands48.5%

Draw26.5%

Japan25.5%

Pick edge+7.4%

Best valueNetherlands +7.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nld-jpn-2026-06-14

Home Elo: 1815 Away Elo: 1690 Home attack: 1.13 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +125

Cote d'Ivoire vs Ecuador

Sun, Jun 14 - 4:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model Pick

Ecuador

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.14Cote d'Ivoire projected goals

1.47Ecuador projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Cote d'Ivoire

29.4%

Draw

25.9%

Ecuador

44.6%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1595 Away Elo: 1652 Home attack: 0.98 Away attack: 1.00 Home defense: 0.96 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -57

Sweden vs Tunisia

Sun, Jun 14 - 7:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Model Pick

Sweden

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.56Sweden projected goals

1.05Tunisia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Sweden

49.3%

Draw

25.3%

Tunisia

25.4%

Polymarket

Sweden50.5%

Draw27.5%

Tunisia21.5%

Pick edge-1.2%

Best valueTunisia +3.9%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-swe-tun-2026-06-14

Home Elo: 1650 Away Elo: 1560 Home attack: 1.01 Away attack: 0.94 Home defense: 0.99 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +90

Spain vs Cape Verde

Mon, Jun 15 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Spain

High | pick score 2-0

2.99Spain projected goals

0.56Cape Verde projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Spain

85.7%

Draw

10.1%

Cape Verde

4.2%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1865 Away Elo: 1505 Home attack: 1.18 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.15 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +360

Belgium vs Egypt

Mon, Jun 15 - 12:00 PM PDT | Lumen Field, Seattle

Model Pick

Belgium

High | pick score 1-0

1.85Belgium projected goals

0.93Egypt projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Belgium

59.0%

Draw

22.5%

Egypt

18.6%

Polymarket

Belgium59.5%

Draw24.5%

Egypt16.5%

Pick edge-0.5%

Best valueEgypt +2.1%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bel-egy-2026-06-15

Home Elo: 1765 Away Elo: 1620 Home attack: 1.10 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 1.07 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +145