World Cup Betting Model

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

Mon, Jun 15 - 3:00 PM PDT | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Model Pick

Uruguay

High | pick score 0-2

0.84Saudi Arabia projected goals

2.00Uruguay projected goals

0-2most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Saudi Arabia

15.0%

Draw

20.6%

Uruguay

64.4%

Polymarket

Saudi Arabia11.5%

Draw23.5%

Uruguay65.5%

Pick edge-1.1%

Best valueSaudi Arabia +3.5%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-ksa-ury-2026-06-15

Home Elo: 1555 Away Elo: 1740 Home attack: 0.95 Away attack: 1.08 Home defense: 0.94 Away defense: 1.06 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -185

IR Iran vs New Zealand

Mon, Jun 15 - 6:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

IR Iran

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.73IR Iran projected goals

0.95New Zealand projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

IR Iran

55.8%

Draw

23.7%

New Zealand

20.5%

Polymarket

IR Iran54.5%

Draw27.5%

New Zealand18.5%

Pick edge+1.3%

Best valueNew Zealand +2.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-irn-nzl-2026-06-15

Home Elo: 1625 Away Elo: 1495 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +130

France vs Senegal

Tue, Jun 16 - 12:00 PM PDT | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Model Pick

France

High | pick score 2-0

2.26France projected goals

0.76Senegal projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

France

71.3%

Draw

17.6%

Senegal

11.1%

Polymarket

France66.5%

Draw21.5%

Senegal12.5%

Pick edge+4.8%

Best valueFrance +4.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-sen-2026-06-16

Home Elo: 1895 Away Elo: 1668 Home attack: 1.21 Away attack: 1.02 Home defense: 1.17 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +227

Iraq vs Norway

Tue, Jun 16 - 3:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

Norway

High | pick score 0-1

0.94Iraq projected goals

1.82Norway projected goals

0-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Iraq

19.1%

Draw

22.8%

Norway

58.2%

Polymarket

Iraq5.5%

Draw12.5%

Norway82.5%

Pick edge-24.3%

Best valueIraq +13.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-irq-nor-2026-06-16

Home Elo: 1502 Away Elo: 1645 Home attack: 0.91 Away attack: 1.02 Home defense: 0.91 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -143

Argentina vs Algeria

Tue, Jun 16 - 6:00 PM PDT | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Model Pick

Argentina

High | pick score 2-0

2.70Argentina projected goals

0.64Algeria projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Argentina

80.8%

Draw

12.8%

Algeria

6.4%

Polymarket

Argentina70.5%

Draw20.5%

Algeria9.5%

Pick edge+10.3%

Best valueArgentina +10.3%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-alg-2026-06-16

Home Elo: 1905 Away Elo: 1600 Home attack: 1.22 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 1.18 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +305

Austria vs Jordan

Tue, Jun 16 - 9:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Austria

High | pick score 1-0

2.00Austria projected goals

0.83Jordan projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Austria

64.7%

Draw

20.6%

Jordan

14.7%

Polymarket

Austria72.5%

Draw17.5%

Jordan10.5%

Pick edge-7.8%

Best valueJordan +4.2%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-aut-jor-2026-06-17

Home Elo: 1678 Away Elo: 1480 Home attack: 1.01 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.90 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +198

Portugal vs DR Congo

Wed, Jun 17 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Portugal

High | pick score 2-0

2.66Portugal projected goals

0.65DR Congo projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Portugal

80.1%

Draw

13.2%

DR Congo

6.7%

Polymarket

Portugal76.5%

Draw16.5%

DR Congo7.5%

Pick edge+3.6%

Best valuePortugal +3.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-prt-cdr-2026-06-17

Home Elo: 1825 Away Elo: 1520 Home attack: 1.15 Away attack: 0.93 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +305

England vs Croatia

Wed, Jun 17 - 1:00 PM PDT | AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Model Pick

England

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.65England projected goals

1.02Croatia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

England

52.3%

Draw

24.5%

Croatia

23.3%

Polymarket

England56.5%

Draw25.5%

Croatia18.5%

Pick edge-4.2%

Best valueCroatia +4.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-eng-hrv-2026-06-17

Home Elo: 1845 Away Elo: 1745 Home attack: 1.16 Away attack: 1.07 Home defense: 1.14 Away defense: 1.06 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +100

Ghana vs Panama

Wed, Jun 17 - 4:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Ghana

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.52Ghana projected goals

1.10Panama projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Ghana

46.8%

Draw

25.6%

Panama

27.6%

Polymarket

Ghana43.5%

Draw28.5%

Panama27.5%

Pick edge+3.3%

Best valueGhana +3.3%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-gha-pan-2026-06-17

Home Elo: 1585 Away Elo: 1515 Home attack: 0.97 Away attack: 0.92 Home defense: 0.95 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +70

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

Wed, Jun 17 - 7:00 PM PDT | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Model Pick

Colombia

High | pick score 0-2

0.83Uzbekistan projected goals

2.08Colombia projected goals

0-2most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Uzbekistan

13.9%

Draw

19.8%

Colombia

66.3%

Polymarket

Uzbekistan9.5%

Draw19.5%

Colombia71.5%

Pick edge-5.2%

Best valueUzbekistan +4.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-uzb-col-2026-06-17

Home Elo: 1500 Away Elo: 1705 Home attack: 0.92 Away attack: 1.05 Home defense: 0.91 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -205

Czechia vs South Africa

Thu, Jun 18 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Czechia

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.59Czechia projected goals

1.04South Africa projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Czechia

50.1%

Draw

25.1%

South Africa

24.8%

Polymarket

Czechia54.5%

Draw25.5%

South Africa20.5%

Pick edge-4.4%

Best valueSouth Africa +4.3%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-cze-rsa-2026-06-18

Home Elo: 1638 Away Elo: 1545 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.94 Home defense: 0.99 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +93

Canada vs Qatar

Thu, Jun 18 - 3:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver

Model Pick

Canada

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.63Canada projected goals

1.03Qatar projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Canada

51.3%

Draw

24.7%

Qatar

24.0%

Polymarket

Canada76.5%

Draw16.5%

Qatar7.5%

Pick edge-25.2%

Best valueQatar +16.5%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-can-qat-2026-06-18

Home Elo: 1635 Away Elo: 1565 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 0.97 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +115

Mexico vs South Korea

Thu, Jun 18 - 6:00 PM PDT | Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Model Pick

Mexico

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.51Mexico projected goals

1.12South Korea projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Mexico

46.1%

Draw

25.7%

South Korea

28.2%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1665 Away Elo: 1630 Home attack: 1.01 Away attack: 1.00 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +80

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Thu, Jun 18 - 7:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

Switzerland

High | pick score 1-0

1.81Switzerland projected goals

0.92Bosnia and Herzegovina projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Switzerland

58.4%

Draw

22.8%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

18.7%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1715 Away Elo: 1568 Home attack: 1.04 Away attack: 0.96 Home defense: 1.05 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +147

Brazil vs Haiti

Fri, Jun 19 - 12:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model Pick

Brazil

High | pick score 3-0

3.10Brazil projected goals

0.55Haiti projected goals

3-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Brazil

86.8%

Draw

9.3%

Haiti

3.9%

Polymarket

Brazil88.5%

Draw7.6%

Haiti4.0%

Pick edge-1.7%

Best valueDraw +1.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19

Home Elo: 1835 Away Elo: 1468 Home attack: 1.17 Away attack: 0.89 Home defense: 1.12 Away defense: 0.89 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +367

Scotland vs Morocco

Fri, Jun 19 - 3:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

Morocco

Medium | pick score 0-1

1.08Scotland projected goals

1.54Morocco projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Scotland

26.6%

Draw

25.5%

Morocco

47.9%

Polymarket

Scotland17.5%

Draw26.5%

Morocco56.5%

Pick edge-8.6%

Best valueScotland +9.1%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-sco-mar-2026-06-19

Home Elo: 1615 Away Elo: 1695 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 1.03 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.03 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -80

Turkey vs Paraguay

Fri, Jun 19 - 7:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Turkey

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.40Turkey projected goals

1.22Paraguay projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Turkey

41.2%

Draw

26.2%

Paraguay

32.7%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1658 Away Elo: 1628 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +30

United States vs Australia

Fri, Jun 19 - 10:00 PM PDT | Lumen Field, Seattle

Model Pick

United States

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.67United States projected goals

1.01Australia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

United States

53.0%

Draw

24.3%

Australia

22.8%

Polymarket

United States61.5%

Draw21.5%

Australia17.5%

Pick edge-8.5%

Best valueAustralia +5.3%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-usa-aus-2026-06-19

Home Elo: 1685 Away Elo: 1605 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +125

Netherlands vs Sweden

Sat, Jun 20 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Netherlands

High | pick score 1-0

1.92Netherlands projected goals

0.88Sweden projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Netherlands

61.7%

Draw

21.6%

Sweden

16.7%

Polymarket

Netherlands57.5%

Draw23.5%

Sweden19.5%

Pick edge+4.2%

Best valueNetherlands +4.2%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20

Home Elo: 1815 Away Elo: 1650 Home attack: 1.13 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.99 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +165

Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire

Sat, Jun 20 - 12:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Germany

High | pick score 2-0

2.05Germany projected goals

0.85Cote d'Ivoire projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Germany

65.3%

Draw

20.2%

Cote d'Ivoire

14.5%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1785 Away Elo: 1595 Home attack: 1.12 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 1.08 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +190

Ecuador vs Curacao

Sat, Jun 20 - 4:00 PM PDT | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Model Pick

Ecuador

High | pick score 1-0

1.88Ecuador projected goals

0.87Curacao projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Ecuador

61.1%

Draw

22.0%

Curacao

16.9%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Home Elo: 1652 Away Elo: 1485 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.90 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +167

Tunisia vs Japan

Sat, Jun 20 - 9:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Model Pick

Japan

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.96Tunisia projected goals

1.72Japan projected goals

0-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Tunisia

20.9%

Draw

23.8%

Japan

55.3%

Polymarket

Tunisia12.5%

Draw22.5%

Japan64.5%

Pick edge-9.2%

Best valueTunisia +8.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tun-jpn-2026-06-21

Home Elo: 1560 Away Elo: 1690 Home attack: 0.94 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 0.96 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -130

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Sun, Jun 21 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Spain

High | pick score 2-0

2.69Spain projected goals

0.63Saudi Arabia projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Spain

80.8%

Draw

12.9%

Saudi Arabia

6.3%

Polymarket

Spain89.5%

Draw7.5%

Saudi Arabia3.9%

Pick edge-8.7%

Best valueDraw +5.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21

Home Elo: 1865 Away Elo: 1555 Home attack: 1.18 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 1.15 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +310

Belgium vs IR Iran

Sun, Jun 21 - 12:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

Belgium

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.81Belgium projected goals

0.94IR Iran projected goals

1-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Belgium

58.0%

Draw

22.8%

IR Iran

19.2%

Polymarket

Belgium69.5%

Draw19.5%

IR Iran11.5%

Pick edge-11.5%

Best valueIR Iran +7.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bel-irn-2026-06-21

Home Elo: 1765 Away Elo: 1625 Home attack: 1.10 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 1.07 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +140

World Cup Betting Model

Projected Goals

Pick Scoreline

Market Coverage

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

IR Iran vs New Zealand

France vs Senegal

Iraq vs Norway

Argentina vs Algeria

Austria vs Jordan

Portugal vs DR Congo

England vs Croatia

Ghana vs Panama

Uzbekistan vs Colombia

Czechia vs South Africa

Canada vs Qatar

Mexico vs South Korea

Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

Brazil vs Haiti

Scotland vs Morocco

Turkey vs Paraguay

United States vs Australia

Netherlands vs Sweden

Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire

Ecuador vs Curacao

Tunisia vs Japan

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Belgium vs IR Iran