World Cup Betting Model

Projected Goals

Projected goals are expected goals: the average goals a team would score across many simulations from its attack rating, opponent defense, Elo strength, venue context, and host adjustment. They are not a literal final score.

Pick Scoreline

The displayed scoreline is constrained to the selected betting pick. The model may still know that a draw is a common exact score, but it will not show 1-1 beside a team-win recommendation.

Market Coverage

Polymarket prices appear when an active match market can be found. If the live lookup misses but a previous price was saved, the report shows it as cached; otherwise the match is marked clearly as missing.

Upset Calibration

Final probabilities include a soccer calibration layer that raises low-score draws, compresses heavy favorites, and gives close underdog wins a modest boost before picks and market edges are calculated.

Upcoming

Brazil vs Haiti

Fri, Jun 19 - 12:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model Pick

Brazil

High | pick score 3-0

3.10Brazil projected goals

0.55Haiti projected goals

3-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Brazil

81.6%

Draw

13.9%

Haiti

4.5%

Polymarket

Brazil88.5%

Draw8.2%

Haiti3.5%

Pick edge-6.9%

Best valueDraw +5.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bra-hai-2026-06-19

Haiti 1.5 Spread | model 34.8% | fair +187

Brazil -1.5 Spread | model 65.2% | fair -189

Over 2.5 Total | model 67.5% | fair -208

Under 2.5 Total | model 32.5% | fair +208

Yes BTTS | model 42.1% | fair +138

3-0 Exact score | 12.1% | fair +729

2-0 Exact score | 11.7% | fair +757

4-0 Exact score | 9.4% | fair +969

Vinicius Junior Brazil scorer | model 49.5% | fair +102

Rodrygo Brazil scorer | model 42.8% | fair +134

Duckens Nazon Haiti scorer | model 12.4% | fair +706

Frantzdy Pierrot Haiti scorer | model 10.0% | fair +905

Corner Projections

6.8 Brazil projected corners

3.4 Haiti projected corners

Brazil Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 67.4% | fair -208

Haiti Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 66.9% | fair -200

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 57.3% | fair -133

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.7% | fair +134

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1835 Away Elo: 1468 Home attack: 1.17 Away attack: 0.89 Home defense: 1.12 Away defense: 0.89 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +367 Raw W/D/L: 86.8/9.3/3.9% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 12.0% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Scotland vs Morocco

Fri, Jun 19 - 3:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

Morocco

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.08Scotland projected goals

1.54Morocco projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Scotland

26.5%

Draw

28.9%

Morocco

44.6%

Polymarket

Scotland17.5%

Draw26.5%

Morocco55.5%

Pick edge-10.9%

Best valueScotland +9.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-sco-mar-2026-06-19

Morocco 1.5 Spread | model 90.2% | fair -909

Scotland -1.5 Spread | model 9.8% | fair +918

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.6% | fair +114

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.4% | fair -115

Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110

1-1 Exact score | 14.2% | fair +607

0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +852

1-2 Exact score | 8.7% | fair +1050

Scott McTominay Scotland scorer | model 17.6% | fair +468

Che Adams Scotland scorer | model 15.8% | fair +532

Youssef En-Nesyri Morocco scorer | model 28.7% | fair +249

Achraf Hakimi Morocco scorer | model 14.2% | fair +602

Corner Projections

4.3 Scotland projected corners

5.0 Morocco projected corners

Scotland Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 61.5% | fair -159

Morocco Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 55.1% | fair -123

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.0% | fair +127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.0% | fair -127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1615 Away Elo: 1695 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 1.03 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.03 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -80 Raw W/D/L: 26.6/25.5/47.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Turkey vs Paraguay

Fri, Jun 19 - 7:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Turkey

Lean | pick score 1-0

1.40Turkey projected goals

1.22Paraguay projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Turkey

38.3%

Draw

29.4%

Paraguay

32.3%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Paraguay 1.5 Spread | model 82.0% | fair -455

Turkey -1.5 Spread | model 18.0% | fair +456

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.9% | fair +113

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.1% | fair -114

Yes BTTS | model 53.7% | fair -116

1-1 Exact score | 14.4% | fair +596

1-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +950

0-1 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1015

Kenan Yildiz Turkey scorer | model 22.3% | fair +349

Kerem Akturkoglu Turkey scorer | model 20.1% | fair +398

Miguel Almiron Paraguay scorer | model 19.7% | fair +408

Julio Enciso Paraguay scorer | model 18.7% | fair +435

Corner Projections

5.1 Turkey projected corners

4.6 Paraguay projected corners

Turkey Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139

Paraguay Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 66.9% | fair -204

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.3% | fair -101

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.7% | fair +101

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1658 Away Elo: 1628 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +30 Raw W/D/L: 41.2/26.2/32.7% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

United States vs Australia

Fri, Jun 19 - 10:00 PM PDT | Lumen Field, Seattle

Model Pick

United States

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.67United States projected goals

1.01Australia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

United States

48.8%

Draw

28.3%

Australia

22.9%

Polymarket

United States60.5%

Draw21.5%

Australia17.5%

Pick edge-11.7%

Best valueDraw +6.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-usa-aus-2026-06-19

Australia 1.5 Spread | model 73.6% | fair -278

United States -1.5 Spread | model 26.4% | fair +279

Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 52.5% | fair -110

1-1 Exact score | 13.9% | fair +620

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +844

2-1 Exact score | 8.9% | fair +1018

Christian Pulisic United States scorer | model 30.8% | fair +225

Folarin Balogun United States scorer | model 28.5% | fair +251

Mitchell Duke Australia scorer | model 18.3% | fair +448

Jackson Irvine Australia scorer | model 12.3% | fair +714

Corner Projections

5.3 United States projected corners

4.3 Australia projected corners

United States Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.2% | fair -159

Australia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 62.2% | fair -164

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.2% | fair +103

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.8% | fair -103

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1685 Away Elo: 1605 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +45 Elo Total Elo delta: +125 Raw W/D/L: 53.0/24.3/22.8% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.1% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Netherlands vs Sweden

Sat, Jun 20 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Netherlands

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.92Netherlands projected goals

0.88Sweden projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Netherlands

56.1%

Draw

26.7%

Sweden

17.2%

Polymarket

Netherlands55.5%

Draw24.5%

Sweden20.5%

Pick edge+0.6%

Best valueDraw +2.2%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nld-swe-2026-06-20

Sweden 1.5 Spread | model 66.5% | fair -200

Netherlands -1.5 Spread | model 33.5% | fair +198

Over 2.5 Total | model 50.4% | fair -101

Under 2.5 Total | model 49.6% | fair +102

Yes BTTS | model 51.4% | fair -105

1-1 Exact score | 13.2% | fair +660

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +842

2-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +890

Cody Gakpo Netherlands scorer | model 34.5% | fair +190

Memphis Depay Netherlands scorer | model 31.9% | fair +213

Alexander Isak Sweden scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371

Viktor Gyokeres Sweden scorer | model 19.8% | fair +404

Corner Projections

5.5 Netherlands projected corners

4.2 Sweden projected corners

Netherlands Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.6% | fair -175

Sweden Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 59.8% | fair -149

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.4% | fair +103

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 50.6% | fair -103

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1815 Away Elo: 1650 Home attack: 1.13 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.99 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +165 Raw W/D/L: 61.7/21.6/16.7% Draw multiplier: 1.11x Low-score draw: 1.18x Favorite compression: 7.1% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire

Sat, Jun 20 - 12:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Germany

High | pick score 2-0

2.05Germany projected goals

0.85Cote d'Ivoire projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Germany

59.2%

Draw

25.6%

Cote d'Ivoire

15.2%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Cote d'Ivoire 1.5 Spread | model 63.1% | fair -172

Germany -1.5 Spread | model 36.9% | fair +171

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Yes BTTS | model 51.1% | fair -104

1-1 Exact score | 12.7% | fair +687

2-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +855

1-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +867

Kai Havertz Germany scorer | model 35.0% | fair +186

Jamal Musiala Germany scorer | model 28.0% | fair +258

Sebastien Haller Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 17.0% | fair +489

Simon Adingra Cote d'Ivoire scorer | model 11.9% | fair +739

Corner Projections

6.0 Germany projected corners

4.1 Cote d'Ivoire projected corners

Germany Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 55.8% | fair -127

Cote d'Ivoire Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 58.8% | fair -143

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.9% | fair -127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.1% | fair +127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1785 Away Elo: 1595 Home attack: 1.12 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 1.08 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +190 Raw W/D/L: 65.3/20.2/14.5% Draw multiplier: 1.12x Low-score draw: 1.19x Favorite compression: 8.0% Close underdog boost: 1.09x

Ecuador vs Curacao

Sat, Jun 20 - 4:00 PM PDT | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City

Model Pick

Ecuador

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.88Ecuador projected goals

0.87Curacao projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Ecuador

55.5%

Draw

27.0%

Curacao

17.4%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Curacao 1.5 Spread | model 67.3% | fair -204

Ecuador -1.5 Spread | model 32.7% | fair +206

Over 2.5 Total | model 49.1% | fair +104

Under 2.5 Total | model 50.9% | fair -104

Yes BTTS | model 50.5% | fair -102

1-1 Exact score | 13.3% | fair +651

1-0 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +810

2-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +880

Enner Valencia Ecuador scorer | model 37.5% | fair +167

Kendry Paez Ecuador scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361

Leandro Bacuna Curacao scorer | model 13.8% | fair +626

Rangelo Janga Curacao scorer | model 12.3% | fair +716

Corner Projections

5.5 Ecuador projected corners

3.7 Curacao projected corners

Ecuador Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 63.8% | fair -175

Curacao Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 51.3% | fair -105

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.0% | fair +127

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.0% | fair -127

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1652 Away Elo: 1485 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 0.90 Home defense: 1.00 Away defense: 0.90 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +167 Raw W/D/L: 61.1/22.0/16.9% Draw multiplier: 1.10x Low-score draw: 1.17x Favorite compression: 7.0% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Tunisia vs Japan

Sat, Jun 20 - 9:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Model Pick

Japan

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.96Tunisia projected goals

1.72Japan projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Tunisia

21.2%

Draw

28.1%

Japan

50.7%

Polymarket

Tunisia13.5%

Draw23.5%

Japan63.5%

Pick edge-12.8%

Best valueTunisia +7.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-tun-jpn-2026-06-21

Japan 1.5 Spread | model 93.0% | fair -1250

Tunisia -1.5 Spread | model 7.0% | fair +1324

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 51.6% | fair -106

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +625

0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +820

0-2 Exact score | 9.3% | fair +978

Youssef Msakni Tunisia scorer | model 15.0% | fair +565

Seifeddine Jaziri Tunisia scorer | model 14.2% | fair +603

Ayase Ueda Japan scorer | model 29.1% | fair +243

Takumi Minamino Japan scorer | model 22.8% | fair +339

Corner Projections

3.9 Tunisia projected corners

5.2 Japan projected corners

Tunisia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.8% | fair -116

Japan Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.0% | fair +138

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 58.0% | fair -139

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1560 Away Elo: 1690 Home attack: 0.94 Away attack: 1.04 Home defense: 0.96 Away defense: 1.01 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -130 Raw W/D/L: 20.9/23.8/55.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.7% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Sun, Jun 21 - 9:00 AM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Spain

High | pick score 2-0

2.69Spain projected goals

0.63Saudi Arabia projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Spain

74.3%

Draw

18.5%

Saudi Arabia

7.2%

Polymarket

Spain88.5%

Draw8.5%

Saudi Arabia3.9%

Pick edge-14.2%

Best valueDraw +10.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-esp-ksa-2026-06-21

Saudi Arabia 1.5 Spread | model 44.9% | fair +123

Spain -1.5 Spread | model 55.1% | fair -122

Over 2.5 Total | model 60.9% | fair -156

Under 2.5 Total | model 39.1% | fair +156

Yes BTTS | model 45.4% | fair +120

2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +737

3-0 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832

1-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +983

Alvaro Morata Spain scorer | model 44.7% | fair +124

Lamine Yamal Spain scorer | model 33.2% | fair +201

Salem Al-Dawsari Saudi Arabia scorer | model 11.3% | fair +785

Firas Al-Buraikan Saudi Arabia scorer | model 10.2% | fair +884

Corner Projections

6.6 Spain projected corners

3.5 Saudi Arabia projected corners

Spain Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 65.0% | fair -185

Saudi Arabia Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.6% | fair -208

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.6% | fair -125

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 44.4% | fair +125

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1865 Away Elo: 1555 Home attack: 1.18 Away attack: 0.95 Home defense: 1.15 Away defense: 0.94 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +310 Raw W/D/L: 80.8/12.9/6.3% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.5% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Belgium vs IR Iran

Sun, Jun 21 - 12:00 PM PDT | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood

Model Pick

Belgium

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.81Belgium projected goals

0.94IR Iran projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Belgium

53.0%

Draw

27.5%

IR Iran

19.6%

Polymarket

Belgium67.5%

Draw20.5%

IR Iran12.0%

Pick edge-14.5%

Best valueIR Iran +7.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-bel-irn-2026-06-21

IR Iran 1.5 Spread | model 69.7% | fair -227

Belgium -1.5 Spread | model 30.3% | fair +230

Over 2.5 Total | model 49.3% | fair +103

Under 2.5 Total | model 50.7% | fair -103

Yes BTTS | model 52.0% | fair -109

1-1 Exact score | 13.5% | fair +640

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +840

2-0 Exact score | 9.5% | fair +947

Romelu Lukaku Belgium scorer | model 39.8% | fair +151

Kevin De Bruyne Belgium scorer | model 19.6% | fair +411

Mehdi Taremi IR Iran scorer | model 22.4% | fair +347

Sardar Azmoun IR Iran scorer | model 17.9% | fair +459

Corner Projections

5.3 Belgium projected corners

3.8 IR Iran projected corners

Belgium Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 61.3% | fair -159

IR Iran Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.6% | fair -115

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.4% | fair +130

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.6% | fair -130

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1765 Away Elo: 1625 Home attack: 1.10 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 1.07 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +140 Raw W/D/L: 58.0/22.8/19.2% Draw multiplier: 1.09x Low-score draw: 1.16x Favorite compression: 6.3% Close underdog boost: 1.07x

Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Sun, Jun 21 - 3:00 PM PDT | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Model Pick

Uruguay

High | pick score 2-0

2.22Uruguay projected goals

0.74Cape Verde projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Uruguay

64.3%

Draw

24.0%

Cape Verde

11.8%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

Cape Verde 1.5 Spread | model 57.6% | fair -135

Uruguay -1.5 Spread | model 42.4% | fair +136

Over 2.5 Total | model 53.3% | fair -114

Under 2.5 Total | model 46.7% | fair +114

Yes BTTS | model 48.4% | fair +107

1-1 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +740

2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +774

1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +856

Darwin Nunez Uruguay scorer | model 45.1% | fair +122

Federico Valverde Uruguay scorer | model 21.7% | fair +361

Bebe Cape Verde scorer | model 13.2% | fair +660

Ryan Mendes Cape Verde scorer | model 11.2% | fair +792

Corner Projections

5.5 Uruguay projected corners

3.4 Cape Verde projected corners

Uruguay Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 64.8% | fair -185

Cape Verde Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 66.3% | fair -196

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.6% | fair +147

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.4% | fair -147

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1740 Away Elo: 1505 Home attack: 1.08 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.06 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +235 Raw W/D/L: 71.1/17.9/11.0% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.3% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

New Zealand vs Egypt

Sun, Jun 21 - 6:00 PM PDT | BC Place, Vancouver

Model Pick

Egypt

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.96New Zealand projected goals

1.72Egypt projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

New Zealand

21.4%

Draw

28.1%

Egypt

50.5%

Polymarket

New Zealand16.5%

Draw23.5%

Egypt60.5%

Pick edge-10.0%

Best valueNew Zealand +4.9%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nzl-egy-2026-06-21

Egypt 1.5 Spread | model 92.9% | fair -1250

New Zealand -1.5 Spread | model 7.1% | fair +1303

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.8% | fair +109

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.2% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 51.7% | fair -108

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +624

0-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +822

0-2 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +984

Chris Wood New Zealand scorer | model 25.8% | fair +287

Matthew Garbett New Zealand scorer | model 10.9% | fair +815

Mohamed Salah Egypt scorer | model 41.2% | fair +142

Trezeguet Egypt scorer | model 24.0% | fair +317

Corner Projections

3.9 New Zealand projected corners

5.3 Egypt projected corners

New Zealand Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.9% | fair -122

Egypt Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 60.3% | fair -152

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.5% | fair +130

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.5% | fair -130

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1495 Away Elo: 1620 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.99 Home defense: 0.91 Away defense: 0.97 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -125 Raw W/D/L: 21.1/23.9/55.0% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.6% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Argentina vs Austria

Mon, Jun 22 - 10:00 AM PDT | AT&T Stadium, Arlington

Model Pick

Argentina

High | pick score 2-0

2.28Argentina projected goals

0.75Austria projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Argentina

65.0%

Draw

23.5%

Austria

11.5%

Polymarket

Argentina61.5%

Draw23.5%

Austria15.5%

Pick edge+3.5%

Best valueArgentina +3.5%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-arg-aut-2026-06-22

Austria 1.5 Spread | model 56.5% | fair -130

Argentina -1.5 Spread | model 43.5% | fair +130

Over 2.5 Total | model 54.7% | fair -120

Under 2.5 Total | model 45.3% | fair +121

Yes BTTS | model 49.1% | fair +104

1-1 Exact score | 11.7% | fair +755

2-0 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +786

1-0 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +894

Lautaro Martinez Argentina scorer | model 43.4% | fair +130

Lionel Messi Argentina scorer | model 39.4% | fair +154

Marko Arnautovic Austria scorer | model 14.6% | fair +586

Christoph Baumgartner Austria scorer | model 12.0% | fair +735

Corner Projections

5.9 Argentina projected corners

4.0 Austria projected corners

Argentina Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 53.5% | fair -115

Austria Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 56.2% | fair -128

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -110

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +110

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1905 Away Elo: 1678 Home attack: 1.22 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 1.18 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +227 Raw W/D/L: 71.9/17.4/10.7% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.22x Favorite compression: 9.5% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

France vs Iraq

Mon, Jun 22 - 2:00 PM PDT | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

Model Pick

France

High | pick score 3-0

3.28France projected goals

0.52Iraq projected goals

3-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

France

84.3%

Draw

12.1%

Iraq

3.7%

Polymarket

France89.5%

Draw7.5%

Iraq2.5%

Pick edge-5.2%

Best valueDraw +4.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-fra-irq-2026-06-22

Iraq 1.5 Spread | model 30.8% | fair +224

France -1.5 Spread | model 69.2% | fair -222

Over 2.5 Total | model 70.1% | fair -233

Under 2.5 Total | model 29.9% | fair +235

Yes BTTS | model 40.3% | fair +148

3-0 Exact score | 12.5% | fair +702

2-0 Exact score | 11.4% | fair +775

4-0 Exact score | 10.2% | fair +879

Kylian Mbappe France scorer | model 63.8% | fair -175

Antoine Griezmann France scorer | model 36.8% | fair +172

Aymen Hussein Iraq scorer | model 13.0% | fair +667

Zidane Iqbal Iraq scorer | model 6.0% | fair +1562

Corner Projections

6.5 France projected corners

3.4 Iraq projected corners

France Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 62.9% | fair -169

Iraq Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 65.6% | fair -189

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1895 Away Elo: 1502 Home attack: 1.21 Away attack: 0.91 Home defense: 1.17 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +393 Raw W/D/L: 88.9/8.0/3.1% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 12.0% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

Norway vs Senegal

Mon, Jun 22 - 5:00 PM PDT | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford

Model Pick

Senegal

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.26Norway projected goals

1.38Senegal projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Norway

33.6%

Draw

29.3%

Senegal

37.1%

Polymarket

Norway41.5%

Draw27.5%

Senegal31.5%

Pick edge+5.6%

Best valueSenegal +5.6%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-nor-sen-2026-06-22

Senegal 1.5 Spread | model 85.8% | fair -588

Norway -1.5 Spread | model 14.2% | fair +605

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.4% | fair +111

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.6% | fair -111

Yes BTTS | model 54.2% | fair -119

1-1 Exact score | 14.3% | fair +598

0-1 Exact score | 9.2% | fair +988

1-0 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1006

Erling Haaland Norway scorer | model 36.4% | fair +175

Alexander Sorloth Norway scorer | model 21.2% | fair +371

Sadio Mane Senegal scorer | model 27.3% | fair +267

Nicolas Jackson Senegal scorer | model 19.9% | fair +403

Corner Projections

4.8 Norway projected corners

4.7 Senegal projected corners

Norway Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 52.0% | fair -109

Senegal Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 50.4% | fair -102

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1645 Away Elo: 1668 Home attack: 1.02 Away attack: 1.02 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -23 Raw W/D/L: 34.0/26.1/39.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.12x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

Jordan vs Algeria

Mon, Jun 22 - 8:00 PM PDT | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara

Model Pick

Algeria

Medium | pick score 0-1

0.98Jordan projected goals

1.70Algeria projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Jordan

21.9%

Draw

28.2%

Algeria

49.9%

Polymarket

Jordan15.5%

Draw23.5%

Algeria61.5%

Pick edge-11.6%

Best valueJordan +6.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-jor-alg-2026-06-22

Algeria 1.5 Spread | model 92.6% | fair -1250

Jordan -1.5 Spread | model 7.4% | fair +1244

Over 2.5 Total | model 48.0% | fair +108

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.0% | fair -109

Yes BTTS | model 52.1% | fair -109

1-1 Exact score | 13.8% | fair +623

0-1 Exact score | 10.7% | fair +832

0-2 Exact score | 9.0% | fair +1005

Mousa Al-Taamari Jordan scorer | model 21.0% | fair +376

Yazan Al-Naimat Jordan scorer | model 20.2% | fair +394

Riyad Mahrez Algeria scorer | model 32.4% | fair +209

Amine Gouiri Algeria scorer | model 25.1% | fair +298

Corner Projections

3.9 Jordan projected corners

5.1 Algeria projected corners

Jordan Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 54.7% | fair -120

Algeria Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 57.0% | fair -133

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 40.8% | fair +145

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 59.2% | fair -145

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1480 Away Elo: 1600 Home attack: 0.90 Away attack: 0.98 Home defense: 0.90 Away defense: 0.96 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -120 Raw W/D/L: 21.7/24.0/54.3% Draw multiplier: 1.08x Low-score draw: 1.15x Favorite compression: 5.4% Close underdog boost: 1.06x

Portugal vs Uzbekistan

Tue, Jun 23 - 10:00 AM PDT | NRG Stadium, Houston

Model Pick

Portugal

High | pick score 2-0

2.78Portugal projected goals

0.62Uzbekistan projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Portugal

75.9%

Draw

17.6%

Uzbekistan

6.6%

Polymarket

Portugal80.5%

Draw13.5%

Uzbekistan5.5%

Pick edge-4.6%

Best valueDraw +4.1%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-prt-uzb-2026-06-23

Uzbekistan 1.5 Spread | model 42.8% | fair +134

Portugal -1.5 Spread | model 57.2% | fair -133

Over 2.5 Total | model 62.4% | fair -167

Under 2.5 Total | model 37.6% | fair +166

Yes BTTS | model 44.9% | fair +122

2-0 Exact score | 11.9% | fair +742

3-0 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +808

1-1 Exact score | 8.8% | fair +1041

Cristiano Ronaldo Portugal scorer | model 52.8% | fair -112

Goncalo Ramos Portugal scorer | model 39.4% | fair +154

Eldor Shomurodov Uzbekistan scorer | model 14.3% | fair +599

Oston Urunov Uzbekistan scorer | model 8.3% | fair +1108

Corner Projections

6.4 Portugal projected corners

3.5 Uzbekistan projected corners

Portugal Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 61.7% | fair -161

Uzbekistan Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 68.4% | fair -217

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 53.3% | fair -115

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.7% | fair +114

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1825 Away Elo: 1500 Home attack: 1.15 Away attack: 0.92 Home defense: 1.11 Away defense: 0.91 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +325 Raw W/D/L: 82.2/12.1/5.7% Draw multiplier: 1.16x Low-score draw: 1.24x Favorite compression: 11.8% Close underdog boost: 1.12x

England vs Ghana

Tue, Jun 23 - 1:00 PM PDT | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough

Model Pick

England

High | pick score 2-0

2.41England projected goals

0.71Ghana projected goals

2-0most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

England

68.2%

Draw

21.9%

Ghana

9.9%

Polymarket

England80.5%

Draw14.5%

Ghana6.5%

Pick edge-12.3%

Best valueDraw +7.4%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-eng-gha-2026-06-23

Ghana 1.5 Spread | model 52.7% | fair -111

England -1.5 Spread | model 47.3% | fair +111

Over 2.5 Total | model 56.5% | fair -130

Under 2.5 Total | model 43.5% | fair +130

Yes BTTS | model 47.8% | fair +109

2-0 Exact score | 11.6% | fair +760

1-1 Exact score | 10.9% | fair +815

1-0 Exact score | 9.8% | fair +919

Harry Kane England scorer | model 51.5% | fair -106

Bukayo Saka England scorer | model 32.0% | fair +212

Mohammed Kudus Ghana scorer | model 13.2% | fair +659

Inaki Williams Ghana scorer | model 11.3% | fair +784

Corner Projections

6.0 England projected corners

3.6 Ghana projected corners

England Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 55.4% | fair -123

Ghana Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 69.7% | fair -233

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 49.0% | fair +104

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 51.0% | fair -104

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1845 Away Elo: 1585 Home attack: 1.16 Away attack: 0.97 Home defense: 1.14 Away defense: 0.95 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +260 Raw W/D/L: 75.1/15.9/9.0% Draw multiplier: 1.15x Low-score draw: 1.23x Favorite compression: 10.2% Close underdog boost: 1.11x

Panama vs Croatia

Tue, Jun 23 - 4:00 PM PDT | BMO Field, Toronto

Model Pick

Croatia

High | pick score 0-2

0.76Panama projected goals

2.18Croatia projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Panama

12.3%

Draw

24.3%

Croatia

63.3%

Polymarket

Panama13.5%

Draw23.5%

Croatia63.5%

Pick edge-0.2%

Best valueDraw +0.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-pan-hrv-2026-06-23

Croatia 1.5 Spread | model 96.8% | fair -3333

Panama -1.5 Spread | model 3.2% | fair +2990

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.8% | fair -112

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.2% | fair +112

Yes BTTS | model 48.7% | fair +105

1-1 Exact score | 12.1% | fair +728

0-2 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +783

0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +850

Jose Fajardo Panama scorer | model 13.4% | fair +646

Jose Luis Rodriguez Panama scorer | model 9.4% | fair +967

Andrej Kramaric Croatia scorer | model 35.4% | fair +183

Ivan Perisic Croatia scorer | model 24.7% | fair +305

Corner Projections

3.5 Panama projected corners

5.7 Croatia projected corners

Panama Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.2% | fair -204

Croatia Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 50.2% | fair -101

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 43.2% | fair +132

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 56.8% | fair -132

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1515 Away Elo: 1745 Home attack: 0.92 Away attack: 1.07 Home defense: 0.92 Away defense: 1.06 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -230 Raw W/D/L: 11.6/18.4/70.1% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.21x Favorite compression: 9.0% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

Colombia vs DR Congo

Tue, Jun 23 - 7:00 PM PDT | Estadio Akron, Zapopan

Model Pick

Colombia

Medium | pick score 1-0

1.99Colombia projected goals

0.87DR Congo projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Colombia

57.7%

Draw

26.1%

DR Congo

16.2%

Polymarket

Colombia64.5%

Draw22.5%

DR Congo12.5%

Pick edge-6.8%

Best valueDR Congo +3.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-col-cdr-2026-06-23

DR Congo 1.5 Spread | model 64.8% | fair -185

Colombia -1.5 Spread | model 35.2% | fair +184

Over 2.5 Total | model 51.3% | fair -105

Under 2.5 Total | model 48.7% | fair +105

Yes BTTS | model 51.3% | fair -105

1-1 Exact score | 12.9% | fair +673

1-0 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +855

2-0 Exact score | 10.3% | fair +872

Luis Diaz Colombia scorer | model 34.1% | fair +193

Jhon Duran Colombia scorer | model 27.3% | fair +267

Yoane Wissa DR Congo scorer | model 16.6% | fair +501

Cedric Bakambu DR Congo scorer | model 14.4% | fair +593

Corner Projections

5.6 Colombia projected corners

3.9 DR Congo projected corners

Colombia Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 49.0% | fair +104

DR Congo Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 53.9% | fair -116

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 47.5% | fair +111

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 52.5% | fair -111

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1705 Away Elo: 1520 Home attack: 1.05 Away attack: 0.93 Home defense: 1.01 Away defense: 0.92 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +185 Raw W/D/L: 63.6/20.9/15.6% Draw multiplier: 1.11x Low-score draw: 1.19x Favorite compression: 7.6% Close underdog boost: 1.08x

Scotland vs Brazil

Wed, Jun 24 - 3:00 PM PDT | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

Model Pick

Brazil

High | pick score 0-2

0.78Scotland projected goals

2.21Brazil projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Scotland

12.7%

Draw

24.2%

Brazil

63.1%

Polymarket

Scotland12.5%

Draw18.5%

Brazil69.5%

Pick edge-6.4%

Best valueDraw +5.7%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-sco-bra-2026-06-24

Brazil 1.5 Spread | model 96.6% | fair -2500

Scotland -1.5 Spread | model 3.4% | fair +2833

Over 2.5 Total | model 53.9% | fair -118

Under 2.5 Total | model 46.1% | fair +117

Yes BTTS | model 49.9% | fair +100

1-1 Exact score | 12.0% | fair +730

0-2 Exact score | 11.0% | fair +808

0-1 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +887

Scott McTominay Scotland scorer | model 13.2% | fair +660

Che Adams Scotland scorer | model 11.8% | fair +748

Vinicius Junior Brazil scorer | model 38.4% | fair +160

Rodrygo Brazil scorer | model 32.8% | fair +205

Corner Projections

3.9 Scotland projected corners

6.1 Brazil projected corners

Scotland Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 55.2% | fair -123

Brazil Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 57.6% | fair -135

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 55.0% | fair -122

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 45.0% | fair +122

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1615 Away Elo: 1835 Home attack: 0.99 Away attack: 1.17 Home defense: 0.98 Away defense: 1.12 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -220 Raw W/D/L: 11.9/18.3/69.8% Draw multiplier: 1.14x Low-score draw: 1.21x Favorite compression: 9.0% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

Morocco vs Haiti

Wed, Jun 24 - 3:00 PM PDT | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

Model Pick

Morocco

High | pick score 2-0

2.16Morocco projected goals

0.76Haiti projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Morocco

62.9%

Draw

24.5%

Haiti

12.5%

Polymarket

Morocco75.5%

Draw16.5%

Haiti8.5%

Pick edge-12.6%

Best valueDraw +8.0%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-mar-hai-2026-06-24

Haiti 1.5 Spread | model 59.1% | fair -145

Morocco -1.5 Spread | model 40.9% | fair +145

Over 2.5 Total | model 52.4% | fair -110

Under 2.5 Total | model 47.6% | fair +110

Yes BTTS | model 48.6% | fair +106

1-1 Exact score | 12.2% | fair +722

2-0 Exact score | 11.3% | fair +782

1-0 Exact score | 10.6% | fair +840

Youssef En-Nesyri Morocco scorer | model 37.9% | fair +164

Achraf Hakimi Morocco scorer | model 19.4% | fair +414

Duckens Nazon Haiti scorer | model 16.6% | fair +501

Frantzdy Pierrot Haiti scorer | model 13.4% | fair +646

Corner Projections

5.7 Morocco projected corners

3.5 Haiti projected corners

Morocco Over 5.5 Team Corners | model 49.8% | fair +101

Haiti Over 2.5 Team Corners | model 67.2% | fair -204

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 42.9% | fair +133

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 57.1% | fair -133

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1695 Away Elo: 1468 Home attack: 1.03 Away attack: 0.89 Home defense: 1.03 Away defense: 0.89 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: +227 Raw W/D/L: 69.7/18.6/11.8% Draw multiplier: 1.13x Low-score draw: 1.21x Favorite compression: 8.9% Close underdog boost: 1.10x

Czechia vs Mexico

Wed, Jun 24 - 4:00 PM PDT | Estadio Azteca, Mexico City

Model Pick

Mexico

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.14Czechia projected goals

1.47Mexico projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

Czechia

29.0%

Draw

29.3%

Mexico

41.8%

Polymarket

Czechia31.5%

Draw25.5%

Mexico43.5%

Pick edge-1.7%

Best valueDraw +3.8%

https://polymarket.com/event/fifwc-cze-mex-2026-06-24

Mexico 1.5 Spread | model 88.7% | fair -769

Czechia -1.5 Spread | model 11.3% | fair +787

Over 2.5 Total | model 46.5% | fair +115

Under 2.5 Total | model 53.5% | fair -115

Yes BTTS | model 53.0% | fair -112

1-1 Exact score | 14.3% | fair +599

0-1 Exact score | 10.1% | fair +888

0-0 Exact score | 8.6% | fair +1069

Patrik Schick Czechia scorer | model 25.6% | fair +291

Adam Hlozek Czechia scorer | model 15.7% | fair +539

Santiago Gimenez Mexico scorer | model 28.7% | fair +248

Hirving Lozano Mexico scorer | model 21.0% | fair +376

Corner Projections

4.6 Czechia projected corners

5.0 Mexico projected corners

Czechia Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 67.1% | fair -204

Mexico Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 55.8% | fair -127

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 48.8% | fair +105

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 51.2% | fair -105

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1638 Away Elo: 1665 Home attack: 1.00 Away attack: 1.01 Home defense: 0.99 Away defense: 1.00 Host/venue boost: -45 Elo Total Elo delta: -72 Raw W/D/L: 29.2/25.9/44.9% Draw multiplier: 1.06x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.0% Close underdog boost: 1.04x

South Africa vs South Korea

Wed, Jun 24 - 4:00 PM PDT | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe

Model Pick

South Korea

Lean | pick score 0-1

1.07South Africa projected goals

1.57South Korea projected goals

1-1most common exact score

The pick score is the most likely scoreline that agrees with the model pick.

South Africa

25.7%

Draw

28.8%

South Korea

45.5%

Polymarket

StatusNo active match market found

South Korea 1.5 Spread | model 90.6% | fair -1000

South Africa -1.5 Spread | model 9.4% | fair +960

Over 2.5 Total | model 47.1% | fair +112

Under 2.5 Total | model 52.9% | fair -112

Yes BTTS | model 52.6% | fair -111

1-1 Exact score | 14.1% | fair +610

0-1 Exact score | 10.5% | fair +854

1-2 Exact score | 8.8% | fair +1041

Percy Tau South Africa scorer | model 19.2% | fair +421

Evidence Makgopa South Africa scorer | model 15.7% | fair +538

Son Heung-min South Korea scorer | model 35.6% | fair +181

Hwang Hee-chan South Korea scorer | model 23.4% | fair +327

Corner Projections

4.2 South Africa projected corners

5.2 South Korea projected corners

South Africa Over 3.5 Team Corners | model 60.2% | fair -152

South Korea Over 4.5 Team Corners | model 58.9% | fair -143

Over 9.5 Total Corners | model 46.0% | fair +118

Under 9.5 Total Corners | model 54.0% | fair -118

Corners use separate team corner-for, corner-against, and tempo profiles with a small match-pressure adjustment. They are not derived from projected goals alone.

Home Elo: 1545 Away Elo: 1630 Home attack: 0.94 Away attack: 1.00 Home defense: 0.94 Away defense: 0.98 Host/venue boost: +0 Elo Total Elo delta: -85 Raw W/D/L: 25.8/25.2/49.0% Draw multiplier: 1.07x Low-score draw: 1.13x Favorite compression: 4.2% Close underdog boost: 1.05x

Results

Match	Final	Model Pick	Model Prob	Model Grade	Polymarket Edge Pick	Edge Pick Prob	Edge Detail	Edge Grade	Actual	Actual Prob	Projected Goals	Completed	Source
Mexico vs South Korea	1-0	Mexico	42.9%	Win					Mexico	42.9%	1.51-1.12	2026-06-18 6:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Canada vs Qatar	6-0	Canada	47.4%	Win	Qatar	24.1%	market 8.5% \| edge +15.6%	Loss	Canada	47.4%	1.63-1.03	2026-06-18 3:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina	4-1								Switzerland			2026-06-18 12:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Czechia vs South Africa	1-1	Czechia	46.4%	Loss	South Africa	24.8%	market 20.5% \| edge +4.3%	Loss	Draw	28.8%	1.59-1.04	2026-06-18 9:00 AM PDT	odds_api_scores
Uzbekistan vs Colombia	1-3	Colombia	60.1%	Win	Draw	25.4%	market 19.5% \| edge +5.9%	Loss	Colombia	60.1%	0.83-2.08	2026-06-17 7:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Ghana vs Panama	1-0	Ghana	43.5%	Win	Ghana	43.5%	market 41.5% \| edge +2.0%	Win	Ghana	43.5%	1.52-1.10	2026-06-17 4:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
England vs Croatia	4-2	England	48.2%	Win	Croatia	23.4%	market 17.5% \| edge +5.9%	Loss	England	48.2%	1.65-1.02	2026-06-17 1:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Portugal vs DR Congo	1-1	Portugal	73.5%	Loss	Draw	18.9%	market 17.5% \| edge +1.4%	Win	Draw	18.9%	2.66-0.65	2026-06-17 10:01 AM PDT	odds_api_scores
Austria vs Jordan	3-1								Austria			2026-06-16 9:02 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Argentina vs Algeria	3-0								Argentina			2026-06-16 6:02 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Iraq vs Norway	1-4								Norway			2026-06-16 3:00 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
France vs Senegal	3-1								France			2026-06-16 12:02 PM PDT	odds_api_scores
Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	Pending	Switzerland	53.3%						Pending		1.81-0.92		pending
Brazil vs Haiti	Pending	Brazil	81.6%		Draw	13.9%	market 8.2% \| edge +5.6%		Pending		3.10-0.55		pending
Scotland vs Morocco	Pending	Morocco	44.6%		Scotland	26.5%	market 17.5% \| edge +9.0%		Pending		1.08-1.54		pending
Turkey vs Paraguay	Pending	Turkey	38.3%						Pending		1.40-1.22		pending
United States vs Australia	Pending	United States	48.8%		Draw	28.3%	market 21.5% \| edge +6.8%		Pending		1.67-1.01		pending
Netherlands vs Sweden	Pending	Netherlands	56.1%		Draw	26.7%	market 24.5% \| edge +2.2%		Pending		1.92-0.88		pending
Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire	Pending	Germany	59.2%						Pending		2.05-0.85		pending
Ecuador vs Curacao	Pending	Ecuador	55.5%						Pending		1.88-0.87		pending
Tunisia vs Japan	Pending	Japan	50.7%		Tunisia	21.2%	market 13.5% \| edge +7.7%		Pending		0.96-1.72		pending
Spain vs Saudi Arabia	Pending	Spain	74.3%		Draw	18.5%	market 8.5% \| edge +10.0%		Pending		2.69-0.63		pending
Belgium vs IR Iran	Pending	Belgium	53.0%		IR Iran	19.6%	market 12.0% \| edge +7.6%		Pending		1.81-0.94		pending
Uruguay vs Cape Verde	Pending	Uruguay	64.3%						Pending		2.22-0.74		pending
New Zealand vs Egypt	Pending	Egypt	50.5%		New Zealand	21.4%	market 16.5% \| edge +4.9%		Pending		0.96-1.72		pending
Argentina vs Austria	Pending	Argentina	65.0%		Argentina	65.0%	market 61.5% \| edge +3.5%		Pending		2.28-0.75		pending
France vs Iraq	Pending	France	84.3%		Draw	12.1%	market 7.5% \| edge +4.6%		Pending		3.28-0.52		pending
Norway vs Senegal	Pending	Senegal	37.1%		Senegal	37.1%	market 31.5% \| edge +5.6%		Pending		1.26-1.38		pending
Jordan vs Algeria	Pending	Algeria	49.9%		Jordan	21.9%	market 15.5% \| edge +6.4%		Pending		0.98-1.70		pending
Portugal vs Uzbekistan	Pending	Portugal	75.9%		Draw	17.6%	market 13.5% \| edge +4.1%		Pending		2.78-0.62		pending
England vs Ghana	Pending	England	68.2%		Draw	21.9%	market 14.5% \| edge +7.4%		Pending		2.41-0.71		pending
Panama vs Croatia	Pending	Croatia	63.3%		Draw	24.3%	market 23.5% \| edge +0.8%		Pending		0.76-2.18		pending
Colombia vs DR Congo	Pending	Colombia	57.7%		DR Congo	16.2%	market 12.5% \| edge +3.7%		Pending		1.99-0.87		pending
Scotland vs Brazil	Pending	Brazil	63.1%		Draw	24.2%	market 18.5% \| edge +5.7%		Pending		0.78-2.21		pending
Morocco vs Haiti	Pending	Morocco	62.9%		Draw	24.5%	market 16.5% \| edge +8.0%		Pending		2.16-0.76		pending
Czechia vs Mexico	Pending	Mexico	41.8%		Draw	29.3%	market 25.5% \| edge +3.8%		Pending		1.14-1.47		pending
South Africa vs South Korea	Pending	South Korea	45.5%						Pending		1.07-1.57		pending